NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-14.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfefd8a46cd50348a30247abae4a7c4eba0306f004de876ea0eba0eb9c45ec921

Rebuilt 54 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Wizards
Resolved: Mar 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $211,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,254 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x72b4…7d67backed Wizards	44c	98,815$43,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43,050.48	308	45.8%141 W · 167 L	-12.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Wizards	46c	40,402$18,574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,574.36	603	51.4%310 W · 293 L	+16.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	55c	32,194$17,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,513.89	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Heat	54c	30,329$16,469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,860.18	231	47.6%110 W · 121 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat	57c	19,834$11,304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,530.28	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat	57c	18,569$10,585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,984.8	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Heat	57c	15,000$8,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,450	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Wizards	44c	14,808$6,516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,515.53	249	42.2%105 W · 144 L	-9.6wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Heat	57c	11,650$6,641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,009.5	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-18%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Heat	54c	11,111$6,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,111.11	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat	56c	8,745$4,857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,887.75	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat	55c	5,014$2,740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,273.82	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Heat	54c	4,630$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,129.63	293	47.4%139 W · 154 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	59c	4,352$2,574 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,778.6	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Wizards	46c	3,915$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,800	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+4.4wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards	45c	2,997$1,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,344.4	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Wizards	47c	2,941$1,382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,382.35	1,194	48.8%583 W · 611 L	-22.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Heat	54c	2,860$1,545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,315.71	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Heat	55c	2,518$1,385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,132.99	171	44.4%76 W · 95 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat	53c	2,257$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,057.59	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Heat	55c	2,141$1,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$961.03	181	43.1%78 W · 103 L	-12.3wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Heat	56c	1,964$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$864.29	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed Wizards	44c	1,794$789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$789.4	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45b0…4857backed Heat	56c	1,786$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$785.75	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Wizards	44c	1,784$785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$785	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Heat	54c	1,777$951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$825.58	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Wizards	46c	1,742$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.49	274	55.5%152 W · 122 L	+15.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	55c	1,547$851 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$696.29	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Wizards	48c	1,289$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.72	212	50.5%107 W · 105 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Wizards	47c	1,188$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.14	419	47.7%200 W · 219 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Heat	55c	874.9$481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393.81	226	43.8%99 W · 127 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Wizards	47c	826.61$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.72	229	53.3%122 W · 107 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Wizards	48c	807.72$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.7	806	53.6%432 W · 374 L	+16.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb6…8de2backed Wizards	47c	791.36$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.27	62	58.1%36 W · 26 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Heat	57c	789.47$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.47	161	62.7%101 W · 60 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Wizards	46c	708.37$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.66	576	50%288 W · 288 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Wizards	44c	652.72$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.95	207	41.1%85 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Heat	55c	605.23$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.94	584	50.2%293 W · 291 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Heat	53c	584$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.48	451	51.4%232 W · 219 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Heat	54c	559.99$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.6	208	46.6%97 W · 111 L	-9.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat	68c	549.92$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.97	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Wizards	46c	543.4$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.96	225	52.4%118 W · 107 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Heat	56c	536.67$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.67	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Heat	57c	526.43$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.43	277	46.6%129 W · 148 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Heat	55c	479.36$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.36	476	51.7%246 W · 230 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Wizards	45c	399.99$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Wizards	47c	378.37$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.85	304	53.3%162 W · 142 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed Wizards	44c	293.51$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.07	305	44.6%136 W · 169 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Wizards	47c	290.31$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.45	545	49.5%270 W · 275 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Wizards	47c	257.9$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.51	140	53.6%75 W · 65 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed Wizards	46c	244.56$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.58	273	50.2%137 W · 136 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Wizards	47c	225.53$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.52	190	54.7%104 W · 86 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Wizards	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	251	55%138 W · 113 L	+9.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b38…698dbacked Wizards	46c	213.13$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.02	82	43.9%36 W · 46 L	-6.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked Wizards	45c	211.27$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	127	39.4%50 W · 77 L	-9.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Heat	55c	201.45$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.61	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf39…591ebacked Wizards	47c	191.25$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.95	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Wizards	45c	190.92$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.7	218	43.6%95 W · 123 L	-15.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Heat	55c	184.34$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.57	487	51.7%252 W · 235 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4baa…fd17backed Heat	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Wizards	46c	161.46$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.33	267	56.2%150 W · 117 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Wizards	47c	131.57$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.64	313	54.6%171 W · 142 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Wizards	45c	129.5$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	140	46.4%65 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Heat	56c	125$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat	63c	120.27$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.43	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Heat	55c	109.66$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.35	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Wizards	45c	104.03$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.92	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat	52c	103.18$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.53	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Heat	56c	102.2$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.1	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Heat	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Heat	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.1	211	39.8%84 W · 127 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Wizards	46c	98.5$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.31	144	66%95 W · 49 L	+17.1wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Heat	62c	96.93$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.96	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4630…1968backed Wizards	47c	93.87$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.87	126	50%63 W · 63 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Heat	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Heat	54c	92.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.47	649	44.7%290 W · 359 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Heat	55c	91.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.21	113	48.7%55 W · 58 L	-5.7wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86a8…d0e7backed Heat	55c	91.07$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.07	109	55%60 W · 49 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Heat	55c	90.95$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.95	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Wizards	44c	90.14$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Heat	56c	89.45$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.45	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97e9…d62abacked Wizards	46c	75.8$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.67	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heat	53c	75.45$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.45	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Heat	56c	74.97$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.69	301	51.8%156 W · 145 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked Heat	56c	70.49$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.25	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Heat	54c	70$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	533	39.6%211 W · 322 L	-39.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Heat	60c	67.02$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.74	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Wizards	45c	66.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	931	45.8%426 W · 505 L	-25.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Wizards	47c	66$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.02	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Heat	54c	64.99$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.95	213	49.3%105 W · 108 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x409b…21e8backed Wizards	47c	63.83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	258	55.8%144 W · 114 L	+12.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa028…0031backed Wizards	47c	62.37$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.22	306	54.6%167 W · 139 L	+9.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Wizards	29c	58.68$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.83	118	26.3%31 W · 87 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Heat	57c	57.83$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.13	256	55.5%142 W · 114 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Heat	55c	57.02$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.69	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Wizards	42c	56.79$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Wizards	47c	55.75$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.1	251	53.8%135 W · 116 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c1…2d5dbacked Wizards	46c	52.1$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb69a…3b90backed Wizards	46c	52.1$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Heat	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	384	64.3%247 W · 137 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-14.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event