TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$517,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$519,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $517,257 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Heat53c115,454$61,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,263.3572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Wizards46c64,517$29,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,851.9230845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Wizards49c59,062$29,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,130.7454539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Wizards47c51,030$23,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,984.0228649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Wizards49c37,891$18,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,566.481,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Heat51c34,093$17,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,705.7823147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Heat54c31,511$17,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,495.2629351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Wizards47c30,144$14,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,166.8443148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat51c25,109$12,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,293.891,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Wizards47c24,409$11,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,472.0224744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Wizards49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80038253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Heat54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,200.0348343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Wizards48c19,350$9,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,383.8860351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Heat51c16,525$8,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,097.31,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat51c11,177$5,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,427.049,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat53c10,496$5,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,975.574,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Heat50c10,100$5,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,05028554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,600.381,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Heat51c9,073$4,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,445.7356646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Heat54c8,333$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,833.3316640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Wizards46c7,878$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,623.886651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Wizards46c5,610$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580.631644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Wizards47c5,501$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.21,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Heat51c5,233$2,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.2748352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe920…3965backed Heat50c4,699$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x467c…d63bbacked Heat50c4,485$2,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f69…1ffebacked Wizards49c4,225$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.87850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc06…da53backed Heat50c4,153$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab2…462bbacked Heat50c4,100$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddaa…a0d8backed Heat50c4,077$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe802…343bbacked Heat50c4,063$2,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Heat52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Heat51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.5718749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Heat51c3,921$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.291,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Wizards47c3,830$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8005655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cea…5719backed Heat50c3,815$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd462…eaecbacked Heat51c3,762$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.681330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Heat51c3,605$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.2187750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Heat67c3,586$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.872,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b9…f4cabacked Wizards50c3,522$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x464d…753abacked Heat50c3,482$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a0…44c8backed Wizards50c3,465$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f46…909cbacked Heat50c3,422$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7112100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aaf…7214backed Heat50c3,402$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards32c3,392$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.492,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0827…bfa1backed Heat50c3,211$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf48b…8c3cbacked Heat50c3,085$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf1e…5b6dbacked Heat50c3,084$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5422100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards47c3,040$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.164,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Heat52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat51c2,934$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.491,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d8c…362cbacked Wizards50c2,900$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac93…ddb2backed Heat50c2,880$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8632…69b0backed Heat50c2,788$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Heat51c2,550$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.515450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Heat53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1751,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards47c2,477$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.936,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c5…3ceebacked Heat50c2,466$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb041…1f4dbacked Wizards50c2,412$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0723…2f2abacked Wizards50c2,400$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Wizards46c2,391$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10024942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67d6…b04bbacked Heat52c2,311$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.283268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf32c…1a91backed Wizards50c2,281$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6c6…1bd7backed Wizards50c2,272$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d1a…d2c0backed Wizards50c2,251$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f8…8490backed Wizards50c2,244$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92f5…e687backed Wizards50c2,212$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4405…5203backed Wizards50c2,200$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf304…0c92backed Heat50c2,164$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1283…c3bdbacked Heat50c2,137$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55dc…9e0abacked Wizards50c2,137$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa976…9ca6backed Wizards50c2,129$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Wizards49c2,100$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02980737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20db…fc96backed Heat50c2,093$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9252…e38abacked Heat50c2,088$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0442100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x004f…b2c9backed Wizards50c2,088$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x973c…62a9backed Wizards50c2,088$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d59…24e5backed Wizards50c2,077$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Wizards52c2,055$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.6321250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9922…036fbacked Wizards50c1,926$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd5…f174backed Wizards50c1,900$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccb0…a614backed Wizards50c1,899$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41b…533abacked Wizards50c1,855$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…10a4backed Wizards50c1,806$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c0…e63ebacked Wizards50c1,718$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Heat53c1,694$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.5114251.4%73 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5868…8c94backed Wizards50c1,663$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb3…bb62backed Wizards50c1,644$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33fe…e1bfbacked Wizards50c1,616$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6c…8f4ebacked Heat50c1,550$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.92944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef67…a491backed Wizards50c1,536$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Wizards47c1,530$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.171547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Wizards47c1,530$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.195651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6da…67bdbacked Wizards50c1,511$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bb…c7ecbacked Wizards50c1,509$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c75…ede8backed Wizards50c1,505$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb4…920ebacked Wizards50c1,498$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a5…02abbacked Wizards50c1,455$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1232…506fbacked Wizards50c1,452$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed4…fa5fbacked Wizards50c1,428$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.