NBA · resolved market
Tyler Herro: Points O/U 25.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08d03f5404e3de0eb04efe3b47a50a4958a6416705f70ce0f55f262a9fe05a7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,042 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 69c | 2,142$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.58 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 67c | 1,040$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.41 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0b…b446backed Yes | 34c | 869.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed Yes | 29c | 691.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901a…6d69backed Yes | 31c | 644.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…563fbacked Yes | 30c | 577.52$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.69 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…cc63backed Yes | 29c | 528.9$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6898…4f23backed Yes | 26c | 517.38$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d7…029dbacked Yes | 34c | 489.87$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 68c | 332.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 67c | 255$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…f839backed Yes | 32c | 250.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…f35dbacked Yes | 32c | 160.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…179fbacked Yes | 33c | 147.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 68c | 103.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…c273backed Yes | 37c | 93.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 68c | 80.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…1ca6backed Yes | 29c | 66.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked No | 79c | 63.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 64c | 52.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c9…5992backed Yes | 28c | 49.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 47.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 29c | 46.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed No | 74c | 45.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…08d6backed Yes | 36c | 36.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 65c | 24.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 70c | 24.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 25.5this page
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Kel'el Ware: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-14.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-16.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-20.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-21.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Heat (-22.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Heat (-23.5)Wizards won
- Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Wizards vs. HeatHeat won
- Wizards vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Wizards vs. Heat: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.