TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Musettiof Musetti, Collignon
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$147,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,092 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Collignon39c19,623$7,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,642.2711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Collignon25c14,261$3,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,573.437,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20cb…d211backed Musetti79c14,214$11,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,009.0410358.3%60 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Collignon30c11,927$3,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,625.792,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Musetti66c9,119$6,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.468,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Musetti77c7,982$6,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.5618047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Musetti79c7,355$5,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.0144360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Collignon21c5,921$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.322,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Collignon22c3,184$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.481,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1909…a2c9backed Musetti59c2,920$1,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.465362.3%33 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Musetti78c2,841$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.278158%47 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Collignon25c2,722$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.837736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Musetti63c2,712$1,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.0644163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Musetti54c2,583$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.25457.4%31 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Musetti60c2,127$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.926,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c8…e4f7backed Musetti63c2,000$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.4913554.8%74 W · 61 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Collignon42c1,850$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.592,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Collignon24c1,768$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.452,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Collignon22c1,726$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.721,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Collignon26c1,608$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.81,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Musetti72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.8933241.6%138 W · 194 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Collignon21c1,338$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.919023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Musetti48c1,318$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.541,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Collignon21c1,313$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27028322.3%63 W · 220 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Musetti51c1,310$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.919846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Musetti79c1,250$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.520653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Collignon23c1,250$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.3327836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Collignon22c1,067$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.732445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Collignon24c972.77$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5429654.4%161 W · 135 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Musetti52c963.79$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.798060%48 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Collignon25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010043%43 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0f…ae40backed Musetti78c715.82$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.484557.8%26 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Musetti75c667.43$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.431,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe779…335ebacked Musetti79c650$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1660…9d86backed Musetti52c642.71$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.728964%57 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Musetti78c615.9$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.55444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Musetti62c524.52$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.812,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa661…af49backed Musetti72c500$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14211248.2%54 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Collignon39c473.67$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.597041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b3…49f8backed Musetti51c425.98$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7319835.4%70 W · 128 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f8f…8ed0backed Musetti47c422.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.794736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb763…247dbacked Collignon20c421.2$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Collignon66c419.48$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.162,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Musetti77c399.99$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9227944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…7102backed Musetti80c375$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Collignon21c372.25$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1776140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb8…5466backed Collignon22c363.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Musetti42c352$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.4411927.7%33 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6456…60e2backed Collignon15c349.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.954010%4 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Musetti46c340$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.662545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Collignon12c333.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.45728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Musetti79c316.46$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.469567.4%64 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Musetti67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.515160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Collignon22c280$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.618241.8%76 W · 106 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Collignon20c275.2$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.382,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Collignon23c274.12$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0531753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Collignon28c271.85$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.748645.3%39 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Musetti78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.415032%16 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6eac…5bc2backed Musetti79c254.56$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.54245.2%19 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid+18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Musetti50c240.62$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.6210247.1%48 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Musetti79c236.41$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6523670.8%167 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Musetti58c230.67$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1818247.3%86 W · 96 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Musetti51c228$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.729247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Musetti60c227.73$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.541,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Musetti77c210$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.322840.4%92 W · 136 L-0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Collignon49c204.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7337339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Musetti43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11416133.5%54 W · 107 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f6c…576ebacked Musetti79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+40.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3d2c…6b78backed Collignon21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb583…3428backed Musetti78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445554.5%30 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Collignon42c197.65$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4888455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Collignon30c196.23$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.575944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Collignon22c174.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.317823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8854…070cbacked Musetti58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.242055%11 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Musetti78c171.29$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6815363.4%97 W · 56 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6827…26fdbacked Musetti43c169$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.695234.6%18 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc3…675bbacked Musetti60c168.54$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5413763.5%87 W · 50 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2064…0ab1backed Musetti60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6739844.2%176 W · 222 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc391…6cc8backed Collignon36c165.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595149%25 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Musetti80c158.08$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2728139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Musetti51c154.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2924931.3%78 W · 171 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Musetti78c153.55$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.781968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Musetti78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3317746.9%83 W · 94 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03a6…1198backed Collignon23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.57736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e07…6a8ebacked Musetti79c148.1$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.19144%40 W · 51 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf1…6eb1backed Collignon36c142.86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.352040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Musetti55c138$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6199044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c60…2227backed Musetti79c130$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.310532.4%34 W · 71 L-10.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8bf3…a5cebacked Musetti78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick75cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1793…4ebbbacked Musetti78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2194060.6%570 W · 370 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x739a…67adbacked Musetti78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick67cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x417e…15e5backed Musetti79c127.53$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.787462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Musetti79c126.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.612846.9%60 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Collignon44c126.36$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.64050%20 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Musetti60c125.55$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2215860.8%96 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Collignon20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560240.5%244 W · 358 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c58…7aebbacked Musetti80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Collignon26c115.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Collignon34c115.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.911,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4692…0feebacked Collignon21c114.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.115951.6%82 W · 77 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.