Tennis · resolved market
ASB Classic, Qualification: Eliot Spizzirri vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x946ad153538922995dbd60d63c43e00c3b8968f31fe92cf9a798608a6053db2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spizzirriof Spizzirri, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cerundolo | 0c | 3,891$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spizzirri | 59c | 1,712$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.66 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spizzirri | 72c | 1,628$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.24 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cerundolo | 1c | 1,555$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Cerundolo | 4c | 1,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Spizzirri | 69c | 1,462$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.85 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Cerundolo | 31c | 1,400$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.12 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Cerundolo | 59c | 1,215$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.22 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cerundolo | 15c | 1,145$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.93 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Cerundolo | 41c | 1,000$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.13 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Cerundolo | 31c | 999.98$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Cerundolo | 2c | 943.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Spizzirri | 70c | 858.14$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.14 | 1,187 | 62.8%746 W · 441 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Spizzirri | 70c | 775.5$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.82 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…196bbacked Cerundolo | 28c | 722.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cerundolo | 26c | 711$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.31 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Spizzirri | 58c | 641.32$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.06 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Spizzirri | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Spizzirri | 78c | 356.94$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Cerundolo | 48c | 314.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Cerundolo | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…8f3cbacked Spizzirri | 77c | 278.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b69backed Spizzirri | 73c | 274.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Cerundolo | 11c | 270$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spizzirri | 44c | 268.16$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.07 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cerundolo | 12c | 252.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Cerundolo | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Cerundolo | 27c | 224.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 347 | 45.2%157 W · 190 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Spizzirri | 67c | 217.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…ee1bbacked Cerundolo | 9c | 210.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Cerundolo | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Cerundolo | 6c | 177.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked Spizzirri | 53c | 173.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Cerundolo | 27c | 128.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6257…99f6backed Cerundolo | 9c | 116.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Spizzirri | 60c | 116.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Cerundolo | 17c | 115.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Cerundolo | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Cerundolo | 33c | 75.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…316ebacked Cerundolo | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Cerundolo | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cerundolo | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…0977backed Cerundolo | 26c | 61.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…d3b3backed Spizzirri | 80c | 60.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cerundolo | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa246…d834backed Cerundolo | 36c | 54.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…4b9fbacked Cerundolo | 56c | 54.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Cerundolo | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fc…9b30backed Cerundolo | 55c | 45.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Cerundolo | 39c | 39.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Spizzirri | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…639ebacked Spizzirri | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…489cbacked Spizzirri | 46c | 22.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 168 | 70.8%119 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…6abbbacked Spizzirri | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…53c3backed Spizzirri | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…ed39backed Spizzirri | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…5d0abacked Spizzirri | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ASB Classic, Qualification: Eliot Spizzirri vs Juan Manuel Cerundolothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Spizzirri vs CerundoloSpizzirri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.