TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Adelaide International: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Sebastian Korda

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kokkinakisof Kokkinakis, Korda
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$360,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$397,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $360,962 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c30…2002backed Korda0c21,992$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…9ab5backed Kokkinakis32c17,187$5,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,680.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Korda66c13,973$9,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,186.4111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Korda67c13,377$9,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,010.322,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Korda48c12,530$6,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,058.092,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kokkinakis38c9,794$3,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,073.978,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Korda72c9,203$6,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,616.031291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick69cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07f1…9f40backed Kokkinakis33c6,415$2,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,318.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Korda72c6,063$4,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,342.6665558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b17…abcdbacked Kokkinakis30c6,018$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,191.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kokkinakis27c4,914$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,598.952,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Korda59c4,838$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,859.072,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Korda72c4,835$3,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,472.5819134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Kokkinakis32c4,691$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,200.916549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Kokkinakis27c4,660$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.824448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Kokkinakis25c3,968$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,967.8726045.4%118 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae90…f6c8backed Kokkinakis37c3,819$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.796937.7%26 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Kokkinakis27c3,591$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.321,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73d…80e7backed Korda79c3,520$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7781546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8730…48c9backed Kokkinakis28c3,400$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4481100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd571…facdbacked Korda72c3,400$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,44810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca65…b1f1backed Kokkinakis28c3,350$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x645b…49a4backed Korda72c3,350$2,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,41210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x559d…d29abacked Korda61c3,221$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Korda74c3,167$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.3314940.9%61 W · 88 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Korda73c3,055$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.4337540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Korda76c3,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.9918047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Korda78c2,984$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.713652.9%72 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed Korda74c2,702$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.691656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Korda70c2,622$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.122,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Kokkinakis32c2,554$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.4828444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Korda5c2,547$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6213834.1%47 W · 91 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x069d…0308backed Korda70c2,500$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Korda73c2,368$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.335851.7%30 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Korda66c2,337$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.182236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa349…81ecbacked Kokkinakis46c2,329$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.932030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e13…670bbacked Korda72c2,211$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.25164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a2…ab6fbacked Korda1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Korda72c2,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Korda68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36015862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kokkinakis27c1,700$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24627944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked Kokkinakis30c1,643$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.176046.7%28 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4064…5f1ebacked Kokkinakis31c1,595$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.2228039.3%110 W · 170 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x659c…85bbbacked Kokkinakis20c1,570$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2565349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1130…7d2cbacked Korda77c1,504$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Kokkinakis29c1,465$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.032,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Kokkinakis26c1,450$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.1827733.6%93 W · 184 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Kokkinakis11c1,420$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.582,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Kokkinakis36c1,382$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.2318933.9%64 W · 125 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kokkinakis30c1,316$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.524,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849a…44aabacked Korda57c1,269$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.231266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Korda74c1,250$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.9545457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kokkinakis25c1,245$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.867,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a53…cc07backed Korda74c1,210$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.43151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3bb…c8acbacked Kokkinakis26c1,210$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.392748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kokkinakis30c1,189$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.981,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed Kokkinakis30c1,177$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.784124.4%10 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Korda73c1,060$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.859151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Korda54c1,050$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.672,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Kokkinakis27c1,029$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.341,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Kokkinakis44c1,020$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+55%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Kokkinakis21c1,018$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.918250%91 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e7c…d12fbacked Kokkinakis30c1,014$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.185040%20 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Korda65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff72…512bbacked Kokkinakis29c999.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.996833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Korda73c957.06$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005860.3%35 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…7102backed Korda73c912.63$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.221872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Korda69c908.71$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.011,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Kokkinakis23c880.39$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.2230530.8%94 W · 211 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Korda70c876.12$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.048060%48 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kokkinakis13c862.92$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.747,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked Korda75c860$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6451369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+67.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x28b9…9719backed Korda64c740.58$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.463046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa21e…0b18backed Korda4c739.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.821315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-50%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Kokkinakis77c725.34$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.93336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Kokkinakis23c722.08$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55622737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4f…6678backed Korda74c675.68$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84a6…4aa8backed Kokkinakis15c666.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.671090%9 W · 1 L+4.3wins+0.43per pick47cpaid+137.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Korda77c649.35$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Kokkinakis25c629.42$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.4212627.8%35 W · 91 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Kokkinakis25c613.1$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.713636.1%13 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Korda62c608.88$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.6875748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Kokkinakis28c600$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43214744.2%65 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5444…6f68backed Korda75c600$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…4a3cbacked Korda73c599.99$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.991861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Kokkinakis34c588.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.2463247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Korda72c587.59$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.942729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Korda55c582.29$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.42254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa4…dbc5backed Kokkinakis24c581.88$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.8812335%43 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…02aabacked Korda75c574.15$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6112752%66 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Kokkinakis28c565.07$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.851,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…92e2backed Korda72c563.95$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.04633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Kokkinakis36c524.56$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.0816150.3%81 W · 80 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Korda72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36034745.2%157 W · 190 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Kokkinakis27c499.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3659741.2%40 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Korda65c499.99$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32531255.4%173 W · 139 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Kokkinakis31c479.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.3322744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e2c2backed Korda67c440$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.21250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Kokkinakis34c424.9$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.2617432.2%56 W · 118 L-15.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Korda71c422.59$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.