TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Suns, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,631,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,701,393

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,631,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,081 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Hawks42c228,415$95,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,463.1651844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Suns58c219,753$127,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,456.7123257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Suns0c62,137$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.441,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns60c58,946$35,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,577.625,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Hawks42c58,090$24,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,692.3117646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Hawks42c40,000$16,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,199.9943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns58c33,510$19,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,508.812,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Hawks31c33,125$10,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,739.569640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked Hawks42c30,128$12,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,475.4810236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Hawks42c29,755$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,254.9776746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Hawks52c23,607$12,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,300.2221944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks41c23,261$9,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,615.891,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Suns0c23,250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2527943%120 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns58c22,624$13,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,014.914,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns58c22,505$12,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,987.342,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Suns58c22,222$12,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,888.7620551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Hawks56c21,446$12,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,376.1139842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns58c20,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,6001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns58c20,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,599.9759653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Hawks43c19,892$8,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,353.811,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d2…cc46backed Suns51c19,816$10,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,016.293256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xddc3…68a0backed Suns58c17,993$10,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,436757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Hawks42c17,250$7,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,004.9827247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Suns60c16,338$9,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,794.6214751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Suns58c15,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,70019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Suns59c14,500$8,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,556.776540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee7…dffdbacked Hawks42c14,500$6,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,409.932100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72a4…b137backed Suns57c14,500$8,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,264.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks42c14,024$5,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,136.624,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Suns58c13,776$7,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,990.085655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Hawks42c12,500$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,2501,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Hawks42c12,333$5,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,153.1415841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Suns58c11,392$6,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,601.6829347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Hawks39c10,014$3,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,158.1177348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Suns58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Hawks43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,70019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Suns51c9,837$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.6478445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hawks21c9,756$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,745.171,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks48c9,142$4,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,730.352,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns53c8,968$4,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,762.861,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Hawks45c8,951$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,951.3313339.1%52 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8256…3600backed Suns59c8,386$4,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,947.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Hawks41c8,382$3,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,925.545850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Suns57c8,041$4,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,583.431,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Suns58c8,000$4,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,64013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa827…1adbbacked Hawks42c8,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,639.942931%9 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns70c7,689$5,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,346.924,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f0f…e422backed Suns56c7,101$3,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,960.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Hawks42c7,100$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,117.9413148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Suns57c7,099$4,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,046.4314945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0748…a31ebacked Suns50c6,961$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Suns53c6,569$3,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,510.7724752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Hawks34c6,433$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,214.7589444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Suns57c6,348$3,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,637.0648944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Hawks48c6,317$3,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,297.351,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns51c6,269$3,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,212.888,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Hawks42c6,141$2,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,561.9528439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Suns57c6,133$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.7872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Suns58c5,883$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.1262351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Suns57c5,635$3,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,211.9336741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Suns58c5,500$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.9728742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Suns58c5,314$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,082.2823256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks57c5,230$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,234.613,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Suns30c5,004$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.221,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Suns59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc123…a4e2backed Hawks39c5,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0502100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Suns58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f7…5b3ebacked Suns61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0509038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Suns58c4,972$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.9810949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Suns78c4,570$3,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,564.3852460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Hawks22c4,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,509.9847535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Hawks42c4,381$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.9513063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Suns57c4,375$2,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.8359347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd2b…7f04backed Suns57c4,280$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.68348.2%40 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns54c4,245$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.621,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Suns44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76039744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Hawks43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,28066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns57c3,966$2,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.29,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Suns48c3,754$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.832,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b7…7984backed Suns59c3,664$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.03633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns56c3,591$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.061,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Hawks43c3,553$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.1220851.4%107 W · 101 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Hawks56c3,500$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.9929748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns58c3,455$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.71,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns57c3,449$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.073,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Suns57c3,400$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.312,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Suns59c3,390$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00038046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Suns7c3,139$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.344639.1%18 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Suns68c3,098$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.8627848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hawks41c3,050$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.431,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843c…126cbacked Suns44c3,050$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.921464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Suns59c3,001$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.7843653.2%232 W · 204 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Suns57c3,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Suns57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7105455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Hawks43c3,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Hawks41c2,804$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.4955346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79e5…9417backed Hawks49c2,759$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.76165.6%40 W · 21 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcde7…fa29backed Hawks42c2,664$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hawks43c2,622$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.652,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb793…cac9backed Hawks41c2,620$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.