NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf37874b363010cd23d93477a2029fbd18b89473621b68a7fd7dc24981e6aa45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 8,396$4,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,360.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Under | 47c | 6,742$3,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,573.05 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Over | 46c | 5,426$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.91 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 4,599$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,140.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 2,150$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.1 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 51c | 1,425$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.2 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Over | 51c | 1,166$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed Under | 55c | 616.99$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.65 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Over | 74c | 521.62$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 26c | 509.91$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 4c | 428.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 53c | 360.09$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.85 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 164$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 161.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 55c | 152.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…b0bdbacked Over | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 49c | 64.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 41.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x996c…5879backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 37.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…ea8abacked Over | 76c | 35.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 55c | 25.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…462cbacked Over | 51c | 23.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5this page
- Lakers vs. MavericksLakers won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.