South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Rosario Central vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8c62e70b1809932dd24789c2e643156dfb3b48b5af1e89cadb85f2677abe9ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 52c | 6,053$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,132.87 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 69c | 2,222$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 2,121$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.58 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 2c | 818.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 52c | 807$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.36 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 45c | 616.41$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.13 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 530$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 65c | 324.03$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 41c | 254.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 46c | 239.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.53 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 229.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Over | 63c | 222.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 39c | 153.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 54c | 125.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 83.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 74.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 38c | 52.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 47c | 49.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 53c | 27.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 44c | 26.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…462cbacked Over | 60c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Rosario Central vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Rosario Central vs. CA Belgrano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Rosario Central vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Rosario Central vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)CA Belgrano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.