Other European Leagues · resolved market
Casa Pia AC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf7683edc06b896ef53d38ef82ea16eea21ec7fa815280fba8d8dea432b78b71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 33,265$25,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,966.8 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 22,465$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,864.21 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 55c | 7,305$3,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,318.14 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 61c | 4,525$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.17 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Over | 30c | 1,918$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.37 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 56c | 1,094$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.51 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 881.4$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 851.07$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.21 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 677.56$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.3 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2507…d5f2backed Over | 24c | 390.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Under | 43c | 213.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 41c | 211.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 73c | 206.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Over | 19c | 185.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…462cbacked Under | 40c | 148.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…6903backed Under | 43c | 107.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 80c | 105$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 22c | 89.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 38c | 79.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…8f40backed Under | 47c | 76.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…686fbacked Under | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 80c | 59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 45c | 45.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 38c | 44.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 58c | 42.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…4dccbacked Under | 43c | 39.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 64c | 33.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Casa Pia AC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 3.5this page
- Casa Pia AC vs. AVS Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Casa Pia AC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Casa Pia AC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Casa Pia AC vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.