NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29845bdf83975dbc7dcb01e77a3913002b1f5e8b5a4003c4795695feaf3a2f87

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Jazz
Resolved: Jan 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $586,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $588,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $586,257 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Heat	46c	443,509$206,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237,384.01	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jazz	53c	204,538$108,405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108,405.05	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Jazz	54c	200,000$108,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108,000	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Heat	46c	86,957$40,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46,956.52	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Jazz	54c	79,073$42,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42,699.56	545	39.6%216 W · 329 L	-28.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Jazz	54c	12,102$6,540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,540	75	52%39 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Jazz	54c	10,000$5,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,400	207	44.9%93 W · 114 L	-8.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Heat	47c	9,907$4,657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,250.97	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	53c	8,603$4,585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,585.38	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Jazz	54c	7,777$4,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,199.58	245	54.7%134 W · 111 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Jazz	54c	7,500$4,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,050	112	52.7%59 W · 53 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Jazz	53c	7,407$3,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,925.82	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Heat	47c	5,000$2,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,649.99	121	44.6%54 W · 67 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Jazz	55c	4,182$2,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,300	110	49.1%54 W · 56 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Jazz	54c	3,000$1,620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,620	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat	46c	2,924$1,343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,581.03	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Jazz	54c	2,174$1,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,173.96	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Heat	47c	2,000$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060	587	40%235 W · 352 L	+24.3wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Heat	46c	1,727$794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$932.58	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac53…6133backed Heat	45c	1,700$765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$935	100	50%50 W · 50 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Jazz	43c	1,432$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.03	119	45.4%54 W · 65 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Jazz	53c	1,156$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7deb…2682backed Jazz	55c	909.09$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz	55c	891.98$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.59	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat	46c	866.76$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.13	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Jazz	57c	846.01$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.22	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Jazz	3c	791.46$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.71	208	38%79 W · 129 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz	18c	783.44$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.23	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Heat	46c	560.51$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.76	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-17.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Jazz	56c	500$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	629	48.6%306 W · 323 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Heat	45c	420$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Jazz	55c	419.13$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.52	158	49.4%78 W · 80 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat	46c	370$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.8	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Jazz	57c	350.88$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz	53c	331.35$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.3	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5a…ce1cbacked Jazz	6c	210$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa207…8461backed Heat	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked Jazz	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	182	40.7%74 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Jazz	58c	172.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Jazz	55c	145.45$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Heat	48c	124.98$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.99	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb79b…cf30backed Jazz	57c	122.81$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Jazz	48c	110.98$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.94	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heat	50c	102.47$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.27	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x646e…294dbacked Jazz	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	82	40.2%33 W · 49 L	-8.8wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Jazz	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	243	32.9%80 W · 163 L	-22.7wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Jazz	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	127	52.8%67 W · 60 L	-9.5wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1ce…2c56backed Heat	49c	89.16$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.23	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat	45c	82.39$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.17	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Jazz	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c54…da2cbacked Heat	54c	73.72$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.73	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Jazz	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	403	44.4%179 W · 224 L	-23.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf935…5cfdbacked Heat	80c	62.27$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.45	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	75cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed Jazz	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Jazz	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat	47c	57.38$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.41	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Jazz	53c	57.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.41	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c3…0262backed Jazz	36c	56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	30.9%29 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Heat	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	167	45.5%76 W · 91 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6827…26fdbacked Jazz	45c	49$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.25	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Heat	46c	47.2$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.49	177	50.8%90 W · 87 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Jazz	55c	47$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.85	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65b3…7fc9backed Jazz	54c	44.79$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.19	251	44.2%111 W · 140 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Heat	47c	42.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat	55c	42.3$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.25	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d90…cf08backed Jazz	55c	38.18$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	199	40.7%81 W · 118 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Heat	45c	38.18$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	167	49.1%82 W · 85 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat	48c	37.63$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.63	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8677…4d2cbacked Jazz	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	156	43.6%68 W · 88 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Jazz	53c	33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Jazz	46c	31.3$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	115	55.7%64 W · 51 L	+10.1wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa596…ce69backed Jazz	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	97	64.9%63 W · 34 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jazz	53c	31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Jazz	54c	29.23$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	442	43.7%193 W · 249 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Jazz	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	165	46.1%76 W · 89 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Heat	43c	28.26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.11	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Jazz	55c	28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	140	50.7%71 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x871a…7be4backed Heat	73c	25.45$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.86	173	59%102 W · 71 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Jazz	57c	24.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0925…462cbacked Heat	46c	22.87$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.35	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event