NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bb75c517a3a681348dfbaefb03eaf78a4eb2f41fde0ea2fb6fcda6ca5c43b1a

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,859 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9342…7917backed Under	55c	4,523$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	46c	3,597$1,666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,930.46	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	2,712$1,338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,374.21	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	50c	2,222$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,111	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	51c	2,041$1,041 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,041	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Over	51c	1,419$724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$695.31	210	57.1%120 W · 90 L	+20.3wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	50c	1,313$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.54	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Over	53c	1,300$689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$611	193	59.6%115 W · 78 L	+14.1wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Under	51c	1,249$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.99	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over	52c	1,040$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$499.2	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	379	44.3%168 W · 211 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Under	48c	989.88$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.3	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	48c	806.99$391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.24	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	42c	759.23$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.19	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	52c	675$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.44	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	50c	581.79$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.73	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…d3e2backed Under	52c	567.41$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.52	106	44.3%47 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	50c	405$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.5	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde46…a7afbacked Under	52c	315.38$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	51c	271$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.21	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	53c	203.83$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.5	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	49c	179$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.84	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	48c	153.96$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.06	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over	50c	146$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	216	42.1%91 W · 125 L	-15.6wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64f1…fc6ebacked Under	16c	138$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	49c	122.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.99	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	46c	114$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.56	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x911d…2438backed Over	51c	90.2$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.2	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	48c	79.77$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.68	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde5d…e2d7backed Over	52c	41.66$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under	55c	38$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	48c	37.14$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c54…da2cbacked Over	49c	32.8$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.76	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	165	46.1%76 W · 89 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfab5…690dbacked Under	55c	29.09$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd885…c666backed Under	73c	23.74$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…394ebacked Under	51c	21.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2522…c593backed Over	53c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.93	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-5.0wins	-0.18per pick	44cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event