NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafc0c28fb330bd43c51db4eecfcd79b779fb2e587e6766e947e4ac87f7b45235

Rebuilt 10 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Jazz
Resolved: Jan 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,665 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Heat	54c	14,421$7,788 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,633.87	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz	46c	5,327$2,462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,462.05	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	46c	5,190$2,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,395.26	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz	46c	2,800$1,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,288	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	47c	2,578$1,207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,371.26	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Jazz	45c	2,199$991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990.86	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz	46c	1,419$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.6	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Heat	53c	1,319$699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$619.76	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz	53c	1,254$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$664.37	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Jazz	58c	1,250$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Heat	53c	1,044$553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.46	502	41.2%207 W · 295 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Heat	53c	792.45$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$372.45	238	45%107 W · 131 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Heat	55c	602.15$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.97	293	52.6%154 W · 139 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+26%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat	54c	553.89$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.92	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Jazz	46c	470$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.2	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Heat	54c	436.67$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.87	290	55.5%161 W · 129 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Jazz	46c	393.47$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.68	208	38%79 W · 129 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d6d…aeb9backed Heat	54c	223$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.58	139	37.4%52 W · 87 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Jazz	48c	156.25$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Heat	56c	107.14$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.14	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Jazz	46c	52.61$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Heat	53c	51.51$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.35	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Jazz	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Jazz	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Jazz	46c	43.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Heat	54c	41.51$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.1	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa44…752abacked Jazz	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+22%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heat	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Heat	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	120	52.5%63 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Heat	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Jazz	46c	27.85$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	197	48.2%95 W · 102 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Jazz	46c	25.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	350	49.4%173 W · 177 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc676…a9eebacked Heat	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked Heat	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+3.1wins	+0.28per pick	54cpaid	+54.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event