NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ade977cbcb903b7d874272dc94edb19bc22d476a242f8eb526e51cfc141214

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $60,087
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,087 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over	46c	11,133$5,121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,011.81	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+12.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	8,574$4,323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,322.88	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Over	54c	7,976$4,307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,668.96	210	57.1%120 W · 90 L	+20.3wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Under	47c	6,767$3,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,180.49	132	39.4%52 W · 80 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over	49c	5,710$2,798 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,912.1	185	36.8%68 W · 117 L	-11.8wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under	54c	5,382$2,906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,906.49	566	46.5%263 W · 303 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9342…7917backed Under	61c	4,166$2,531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,530.75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x42f1…bebdbacked Over	50c	4,022$2,011 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,011.17	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	54c	2,838$1,528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,527.83	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa177…6e84backed Under	49c	2,355$1,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,154	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	52c	1,772$926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$926.19	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over	55c	1,335$734 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.55	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over	52c	1,327$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$637	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x266d…083fbacked Over	49c	1,034$507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$527.53	56	64.3%36 W · 20 L	+3.4wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd622…8b56backed Under	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	-5.4wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	54c	905.93$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.2	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Over	23c	869$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$669.13	353	26.6%94 W · 259 L	+21.9wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+31%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd36a…28d6backed Over	50c	829.55$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.46	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9925…e33ebacked Over	53c	680$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.6	101	56.4%57 W · 44 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	52c	486.5$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.63	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	53c	452.03$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.5	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	46c	418.35$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.56	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	139	51.1%71 W · 68 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	31c	327.91$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.08	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	51c	279.08$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.44	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfccd…b1afbacked Over	21c	200$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+4.0wins	+0.17per pick	22cpaid	+57.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe711…3dd2backed Over	53c	168.34$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.12	128	55.5%71 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under	53c	146$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.38	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	46c	130.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Over	55c	102.99$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.35	357	47.1%168 W · 189 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ccc…585fbacked Over	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-5.6wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc6c…fe22backed Over	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	74	54.1%40 W · 34 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3d…2068backed Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde5d…e2d7backed Over	55c	90$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.5	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Under	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c54…da2cbacked Over	54c	55.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.55	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over	50c	49.54$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.77	332	58.7%195 W · 137 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Over	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Under	54c	44.54$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.05	557	51.9%289 W · 268 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Under	45c	31.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	115	55.7%64 W · 51 L	+10.1wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	53c	25.47$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.97	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Under	54c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf343…e069backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event