NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ffff78ca8b978b3be0d0997d8cc80fed0f0383ba5ea504ae6baec4c3cfe922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 45c | 16,701$7,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,163.01 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 11,781$6,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,262.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Over | 51c | 8,440$4,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,097.12 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Over | 43c | 5,390$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.25 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd676…e80dbacked Under | 49c | 4,286$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 53c | 4,005$2,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122.78 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 47c | 2,842$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.28 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,821$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 2,237$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 51c | 2,086$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.71 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 55c | 2,025$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.83 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 45c | 1,733$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.22 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 56c | 1,617$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.75 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50e…2609backed Over | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2305…8087backed Over | 51c | 1,400$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,354$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…f0b9backed Over | 51c | 1,286$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Under | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 1,100$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 50c | 933$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.5 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 44c | 902.64$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.48 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 51c | 770.35$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.88 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 57c | 475.52$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.05 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Over | 46c | 394.99$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 389.47$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.21 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 47c | 296.7$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.25 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 57c | 263.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 57c | 245$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 8c | 202.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Under | 53c | 158.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 151.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 55c | 149.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 49c | 142.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 134.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 104.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 49c | 95.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Over | 43c | 74.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 44c | 50.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Under | 53c | 47.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Under | 57c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 57c | 40.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 39.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 57c | 37.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 57c | 36.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 44c | 35.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 58c | 34.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…185bbacked Over | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 292 | 47.9%140 W · 152 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…462cbacked Under | 57c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 50c | 26.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 57c | 25.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 57c | 22.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Under | 57c | 17.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.