NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02e51e48a62da9394f18f6220f4c51551d94a164a347aaf0e47d754f995cc2da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 43c | 36,300$15,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,690.98 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…7c26backed Under | 57c | 35,550$20,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,263.5 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 43c | 8,461$3,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,809.05 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…4b76backed Under | 25c | 4,022$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +127%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 80c | 3,348$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.59 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 3,011$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 2,664$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.39 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 51c | 1,887$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.87 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Over | 42c | 1,286$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.12 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 1,155$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 44c | 1,137$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.72 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 866.12$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 41c | 857.61$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.99 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce90…d285backed Under | 59c | 850$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 58c | 828$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.99 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under | 57c | 683.77$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.75 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 42c | 641$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.78 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef50…fddcbacked Under | 10c | 627$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 52c | 535.48$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.16 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 403.57$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 57c | 400.14$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.94 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…4419backed Under | 17c | 357.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…0a1abacked Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 55c | 275.73$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 270.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d10bbacked Under | 17c | 247.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 229.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 43c | 213$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…fddcbacked Under | 12c | 204.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 52c | 192.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 61c | 173.12$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Under | 58c | 170.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed Under | 17c | 163.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…5fc5backed Under | 17c | 150.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 149.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…ef56backed Over | 70c | 144$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 42c | 142.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Under | 60c | 135.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 55c | 130$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 27c | 129.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d2…a62dbacked Under | 33c | 121.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 115.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…02e0backed Over | 60c | 107.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e8…72ccbacked Under | 34c | 106.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -9.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea52…b082backed Under | 65c | 92.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…c0b5backed Under | 14c | 86.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 61.6%93 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 17c | 75.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…c3d4backed Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…413dbacked Under | 30c | 65.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Under | 18c | 64.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 58c | 63.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Over | 39c | 49.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 56c | 47.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Over | 80c | 30.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…bf2abacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…15e3backed Under | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…a71bbacked Over | 60c | 25.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 56c | 24.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 44c | 24.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…b307backed Over | 74c | 23.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…2c6dbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…e480backed Under | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0e…6edabacked Over | 72c | 14.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.