NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb3a4648d6d31e48497a3bf8d5cf5f176c7b441e953c13619acb40dab429c2e0

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $101,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $101,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,205 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb8e6…d504backed Over	55c	65,480$35,710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29,770.4	210	57.1%120 W · 90 L	+20.3wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	46c	36,196$16,592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,592.19	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	45c	16,557$7,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,500.37	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under	46c	5,250$2,436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,436	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	45c	4,637$2,103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,102.93	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	51c	3,322$1,694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,627.72	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cbf…4ec0backed Over	52c	3,000$1,551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,448.56	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	+4.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	51c	2,999$1,529 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,469.51	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under	47c	2,304$1,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,082.74	292	43.8%128 W · 164 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.99	266	37.2%99 W · 167 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	46c	1,922$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.44	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	46c	1,671$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$762.82	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	48c	1,581$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under	28c	1,227$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.04	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over	51c	1,225$625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.49	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	46c	1,029$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.89	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Over	57c	877.19$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.19	142	54.9%78 W · 64 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef50…fddcbacked Under	13c	782.44$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.31	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Under	44c	668$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.92	187	43.3%81 W · 106 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under	44c	487.14$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.33	545	49.5%270 W · 275 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	47c	332$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.21	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	55c	300.05$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.98	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	46c	300$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	50c	271.38$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.69	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Under	44c	270.45$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	542	46.7%253 W · 289 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over	56c	263.32$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	39c	201.61$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.63	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Under	49c	200.4$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.2	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	46c	200$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	21c	196.38$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.25	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under	35c	184.7$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.45	260	34.6%90 W · 170 L	-20.6wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	29c	127.03$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.84	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under	48c	117.12$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.53	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Under	45c	115.9$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1ce…b027backed Over	52c	113.46$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.46	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	56c	107.14$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.14	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	65c	101.54$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.54	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	45c	99.81$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.92	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	46c	91$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.86	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	149	47%70 W · 79 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under	42c	85$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50d7…e17cbacked Over	60c	83.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-34%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over	52c	70$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under	47c	63.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.91	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	28c	60.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Over	52c	59.98$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.79	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Over	56c	57$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.18	410	48.3%198 W · 212 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Under	42c	53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	90	50%45 W · 45 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Under	45c	52.14$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.46	179	49.2%88 W · 91 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Over	57c	50.88$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.88	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	-9.4wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over	59c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdad0…90cdbacked Under	30c	45.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over	52c	44.12$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.18	1,003	51%512 W · 491 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	49c	41.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfedd…32c4backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	96	55.2%53 W · 43 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Under	42c	37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf26c…3443backed Over	58c	37$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.54	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Over	57c	34.05$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.64	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over	71c	30.63$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.88	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaed4…4cc9backed Over	66c	30.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.3	94	39.4%37 W · 57 L	-9.8wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca1e…53e3backed Under	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	57cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb34…a390backed Under	45c	29.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Over	52c	28.84$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.84	350	49.4%173 W · 177 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Over	58c	27$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbd9…aea9backed Over	57c	26.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	101	56.4%57 W · 44 L	+5.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fef…a3d3backed Over	58c	26$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed Under	45c	24.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	164	43.9%72 W · 92 L	-9.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Under	45c	24.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	150	40%60 W · 90 L	-14.1wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over	59c	24$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.84	394	49.2%194 W · 200 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe61f…8beebacked Over	67c	22.1$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.25	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55cd…5cccbacked Over	57c	21.05$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x315a…b24cbacked Over	58c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.82	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Over	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	412	51%210 W · 202 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5this page
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
Jaylin Williams: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 10.5No won
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5No won
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5Yes won
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
Thunder vs. NuggetsThunder won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 225.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event