NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x931cbeeaab144c96f73728da5aacb2d5f9509fcee59618cf5bf0f26a2975c5e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 49c | 40,880$20,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,755.84 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 5c | 26,914$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.71 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 24,276$12,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,258.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Over | 51c | 22,000$11,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,779.99 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 12,438$6,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,069.44 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 8,450$4,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,165.41 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 49c | 3,377$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.65 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 7c | 3,308$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 1,933$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.07 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 47c | 1,890$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.3 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 1,539$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.98 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 1,378$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 1,296$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.82 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 50c | 991$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.5 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 49c | 722.45$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 515.1$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.43 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 52c | 486.99$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.76 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 49c | 469.39$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 400$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 5c | 399.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 47c | 314.45$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.79 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 51c | 288.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 245$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…3e65backed Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 120.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 187 | 43.3%81 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 52c | 111.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 49c | 84.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…aafcbacked Under | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 50c | 50.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Under | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 51c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…f3ffbacked Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…c85ebacked Under | 51c | 24.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 50c | 23.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.