NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe538fa36527d2a217deead54457c08474471601f35abaa9b67838f047729a8f0

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Thunderof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved: Feb 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $136,232
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $137,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,232 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x08c5…43edbacked Nuggets	48c	41,512$19,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,925.84	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder	52c	37,875$19,607 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,268.21	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cae…a00abacked Thunder	52c	30,000$15,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,401.38	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+5.9wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Nuggets	45c	26,008$11,704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,703.62	545	39.6%216 W · 329 L	-28.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder	54c	7,568$4,115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,453.41	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets	48c	7,168$3,447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,447.04	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets	44c	6,949$3,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,080.31	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets	46c	3,979$1,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,815.97	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Thunder	56c	3,857$2,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,696.98	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder	52c	3,407$1,763 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,643.7	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Thunder	54c	2,323$1,255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,068.75	172	50.6%87 W · 85 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Thunder	50c	2,122$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,062.45	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Thunder	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.78	120	51.7%62 W · 58 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets	47c	1,920$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$898.74	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Thunder	55c	1,780$979 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$801	646	51.7%334 W · 312 L	-14.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder	48c	1,752$841 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$911	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets	48c	1,719$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Nuggets	48c	1,710$821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$820.82	281	47.7%134 W · 147 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder	54c	1,700$915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$784.55	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Thunder	55c	1,627$895 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$732.25	596	53.4%318 W · 278 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Nuggets	48c	1,527$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.82	226	43.8%99 W · 127 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Nuggets	48c	1,512$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.87	151	47%71 W · 80 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Nuggets	52c	999$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.48	196	47.4%93 W · 103 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x096a…390bbacked Thunder	59c	881.36$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$361.36	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Nuggets	48c	710.62$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.1	293	52.6%154 W · 139 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+26%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Thunder	56c	696.53$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.93	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Nuggets	45c	679.82$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.92	260	34.6%90 W · 170 L	-20.6wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Nuggets	44c	569.99$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.8	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets	48c	518.65$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.95	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Nuggets	45c	500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nuggets	47c	487.32$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.99	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Thunder	55c	403.28$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.52	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked Nuggets	51c	389.83$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	213	52.1%111 W · 102 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Thunder	56c	357.24$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.24	211	52.6%111 W · 100 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Nuggets	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Nuggets	55c	300$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Thunder	56c	277$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.88	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Nuggets	44c	267.06$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.51	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Nuggets	46c	250$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b45…d196backed Nuggets	51c	160$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.6	125	40.8%51 W · 74 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e31…5e8ebacked Nuggets	45c	146.44$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.9	117	48.7%57 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Nuggets	42c	119.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd1…553dbacked Nuggets	44c	118.09$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.96	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	57cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e21…c6f4backed Thunder	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	132	65.2%86 W · 46 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Thunder	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-5.0wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-30%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd75…ae75backed Thunder	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69e1…11a6backed Nuggets	42c	95.24$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Thunder	52c	93.41$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.13	216	45.8%99 W · 117 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb007…7f04backed Thunder	55c	87$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.15	92	47.8%44 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Nuggets	46c	85.87$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	542	46.7%253 W · 289 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Thunder	52c	84.56$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.59	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Nuggets	44c	79$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.76	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Thunder	52c	76.8$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.86	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Thunder	53c	76$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.72	539	45.3%244 W · 295 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Nuggets	47c	75.28$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.41	118	49.2%58 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder	50c	74.26$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.94	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Nuggets	45c	55.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.07	179	49.2%88 W · 91 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3526…8b74backed Thunder	59c	52.54$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.54	147	51.7%76 W · 71 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Thunder	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Thunder	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Thunder	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	432	46.1%199 W · 233 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Nuggets	49c	46.95$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.81	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Nuggets	46c	44.7$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.51	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed Nuggets	45c	44.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	82	43.9%36 W · 46 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Nuggets	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	195	43.1%84 W · 111 L	-12.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Thunder	55c	42$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.01	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Nuggets	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	421	46.1%194 W · 227 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Nuggets	42c	38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Thunder	55c	37.87$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Thunder	53c	33.55$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.77	628	44.9%282 W · 346 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Thunder	57c	33.33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.33	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Nuggets	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	335	52.8%177 W · 158 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Thunder	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Thunder	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	226	55.3%125 W · 101 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5935…b8dabacked Thunder	56c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.76	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+4.2wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Thunder	56c	26.31$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.58	350	49.4%173 W · 177 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed Thunder	52c	25.99$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.44	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x658e…3ba6backed Nuggets	41c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Nuggets	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	288	52.8%152 W · 136 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7337…0cd1backed Thunder	52c	24.47$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.85	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xed1b…4045backed Thunder	52c	23.83$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.41	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eab…7e13backed Nuggets	54c	21.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	141	52.5%74 W · 67 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed Thunder	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	204	48.5%99 W · 105 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
Jaylin Williams: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 10.5No won
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5No won
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5Yes won
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
Thunder vs. NuggetsThunder won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 225.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Thunder (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event