NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaab154f763b1961483f94d123759dd7fc6f94ac76828c759c4f243575447979b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8873…09fcbacked Nuggets | 38c | 5,243$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 63c | 2,081$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.59 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Thunder | 62c | 1,427$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.68 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Thunder | 68c | 579.26$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.36 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…98aabacked Nuggets | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Nuggets | 34c | 102$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5718…24d4backed Thunder | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Nuggets | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 27.5%44 W · 116 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets | 33c | 41.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Nuggets | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…a8a0backed Nuggets | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Thunder | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Thunder | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Thunder | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc573…cdacbacked Thunder | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Thunder | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Thunder | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Thunder | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.