TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$244,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$245,308

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d16…d24dbacked Nuggets48c100,343$48,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,164.738961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Thunder52c99,977$51,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,988.7526753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Nuggets47c31,413$14,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,781.0144352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder51c31,332$16,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,226.462,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Thunder53c30,000$15,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,10020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Nuggets49c23,470$11,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,5007552%39 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Nuggets49c20,100$9,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,748.57240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Thunder53c19,870$10,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,338.9920055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Thunder52c17,322$9,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,314.5943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets47c10,750$5,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,043.288,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Nuggets47c10,500$4,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,93571547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Nuggets47c7,354$3,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,456.1513357.9%77 W · 56 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Thunder53c5,650$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.512056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e7…be51backed Thunder53c4,717$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.9810049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets46c4,584$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.249,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Thunder51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Thunder52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.1526637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets48c3,830$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.251,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Nuggets48c3,217$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54426949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Thunder55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Thunder52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder54c2,154$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.831,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder53c2,150$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.143,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets48c1,972$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.636,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Nuggets48c1,744$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83743453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Thunder52c1,670$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…da42backed Nuggets47c1,600$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Nuggets49c1,492$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.0818553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Thunder53c1,321$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.7521152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef04…9ef0backed Nuggets48c1,162$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.671526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Nuggets46c1,022$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.3326034.6%90 W · 170 L-20.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Nuggets47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder53c980.4$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.791,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Nuggets48c864.18$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.8151146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Nuggets49c714.29$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35047542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets47c678.05$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.53,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09a5…b5c3backed Nuggets49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503050%15 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Nuggets45c495.32$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.911753%62 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Nuggets48c468.75$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22516030.6%49 W · 111 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Nuggets45c418$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.162744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked Nuggets47c418$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4617644.9%79 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Thunder55c363.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8220552.2%107 W · 98 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets47c351$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.973,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder53c351$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.971,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Nuggets48c333.33$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed Nuggets46c330.72$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1310255.9%57 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Nuggets50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15061747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets46c257.77$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.574,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Thunder52c240.38$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3849852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Nuggets46c219.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004540%18 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Nuggets46c219.19$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8343244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Thunder51c218.79$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2753043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Nuggets47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9456348.5%273 W · 290 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Thunder53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6836450.8%185 W · 179 L-1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nuggets45c167.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.312,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Thunder54c126.28$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0922655.3%125 W · 101 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Thunder53c121.28$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5791148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Thunder54c111.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.114351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Nuggets47c102.83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3348451.2%248 W · 236 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Nuggets48c102.08$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed Nuggets46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4617661.4%108 W · 68 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Nuggets46c95.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0239756.7%225 W · 172 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa96b…7d92backed Thunder53c92.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.454344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…7b2fbacked Thunder55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6721…d75bbacked Thunder54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.43844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb007…7f04backed Nuggets47c85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.959247.8%44 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Nuggets48c82.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.141,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf592…9872backed Nuggets49c80.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3911651.7%60 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked Nuggets47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.67954.4%43 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2e…44c3backed Thunder53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.61250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Thunder58c77.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8947349%232 W · 241 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Thunder52c72.81$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9566250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets42c67.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.495,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbc…b637backed Nuggets45c67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1517331.8%55 W · 118 L-16.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Nuggets46c64.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Nuggets48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022442.9%96 W · 128 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Nuggets48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3056547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x926c…a86bbacked Thunder53c53.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.184332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe22f…fe42backed Nuggets47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.38per pick51cpaid-75.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd944…07d5backed Nuggets46c52.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.23053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdb…f0a5backed Thunder55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.53243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Thunder54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2338252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Thunder55c48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7541048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Thunder51c46.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.915040%60 W · 90 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77ed…6102backed Thunder55c44.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.085837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed Thunder51c39.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2716443.9%72 W · 92 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8292…056abacked Thunder53c35.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8076…2f96backed Thunder56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+68%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd227…0e69backed Nuggets47c34.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165869%40 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Thunder53c33.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8521645.8%99 W · 117 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Nuggets47c33.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5439736.3%144 W · 253 L-27.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Nuggets46c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1823651.7%122 W · 114 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc7…55f6backed Nuggets46c32.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0611051.8%57 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7676…ada4backed Nuggets47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517345.1%78 W · 95 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac6d…5fb2backed Thunder53c30.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.193100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ef7…3eb0backed Thunder52c30.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.412142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x536d…4430backed Thunder53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.14551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Thunder52c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9253945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69df…eb1cbacked Thunder53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.