NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28f6d77ac29b0af7bcd9e86bb0501fa78857c656be207d2bd71c3a6e38568c4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 31c | 7,606$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.49 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 41c | 6,891$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa392…1415backed Nuggets | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Thunder | 50c | 4,994$2,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 54c | 4,201$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.25 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 60c | 2,314$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Thunder | 51c | 2,106$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 58c | 839.02$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.71 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Nuggets | 47c | 638.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Thunder | 55c | 637.65$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.65 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder | 59c | 423.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.71 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Thunder | 62c | 419.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.35 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Thunder | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets | 40c | 349.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 60c | 335.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets | 40c | 306.54$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder | 59c | 258$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Nuggets | 8c | 235.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Thunder | 60c | 224.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Nuggets | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Nuggets | 41c | 194.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 60c | 185$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Thunder | 60c | 147.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Nuggets | 41c | 134.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Nuggets | 46c | 116.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Thunder | 60c | 116$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Nuggets | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Nuggets | 41c | 98.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Thunder | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nuggets | 44c | 74.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 45c | 72.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…e01bbacked Nuggets | 32c | 62.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nuggets | 34c | 61.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Nuggets | 40c | 56.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Thunder | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Thunder | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Thunder | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Thunder | 58c | 43.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Nuggets | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Nuggets | 40c | 35.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Nuggets | 42c | 33.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Nuggets | 47c | 32.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Thunder | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Nuggets | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd891…7341backed Thunder | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6185…6b22backed Thunder | 69c | 26.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Nuggets | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Thunder | 55c | 22.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…ab6bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Thunder | 55c | 19.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 32.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.