Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Stanford Cardinal (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76aedcf84017ce7a0771043a4777f9df2553d0301a05e9bf4735eaa6e83f011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California Golden Bearsof Stanford Cardinal, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $534,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $534,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $534,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Stanford Cardinal | 53c | 456,130$240,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240,195.57 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed California Golden Bears | 47c | 250,000$117,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132,500.03 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +9.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed California Golden Bears | 48c | 150,900$72,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,468 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 40,816$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,816.33 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Stanford Cardinal | 52c | 17,418$8,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,983.85 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked California Golden Bears | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 8,089$3,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,125.46 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Stanford Cardinal | 51c | 6,099$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.59 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed California Golden Bears | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.22 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.22 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 3,034$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.34 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California Golden Bears | 48c | 1,131$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.97 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Stanford Cardinal | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Stanford Cardinal | 52c | 732.96$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.23 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 563$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.85 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed California Golden Bears | 47c | 450$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 344.39$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.64 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 250.06$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed California Golden Bears | 47c | 213.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Stanford Cardinal | 52c | 191.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed California Golden Bears | 48c | 157.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Stanford Cardinal | 52c | 152$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed California Golden Bears | 35c | 150.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked California Golden Bears | 48c | 123.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Stanford Cardinal | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Stanford Cardinal | 51c | 60.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 210 | 59.5%125 W · 85 L | +17.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 56.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed California Golden Bears | 48c | 50.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…462cbacked Stanford Cardinal | 53c | 47.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…772abacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 30.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Stanford Cardinal | 51c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Stanford Cardinal | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 59.4%92 W · 63 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stanford Cardinal (-4.5)this page
- California Golden Bears vs. Stanford CardinalCalifornia Golden Bears won
- California Golden Bears vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 145.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.