TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alcarazof Alcaraz, Paul
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$676,335
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$735,393

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $676,335 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c80…02c3backed Paul12c170,930$20,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,509.523525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Paul2c99,329$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.6323731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Paul11c38,684$4,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,379.492,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Paul11c20,662$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.831,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Paul13c18,812$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.2619134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Paul8c15,854$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.291,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Paul13c14,878$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.6711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Paul10c14,102$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.64944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Paul1c7,484$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Paul11c6,035$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.8313934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3146…3927backed Paul11c5,500$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6456…60e2backed Paul1c5,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.544010%4 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Paul2c4,846$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.612334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Paul9c4,220$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37127733.6%93 W · 184 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Paul10c4,052$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.292,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Paul16c3,702$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.777,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Paul11c3,281$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.062231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Paul9c3,186$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.6812322%27 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Paul12c3,153$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.352,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Paul10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008640.7%35 W · 51 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+60.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Paul10c2,950$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2953141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Paul8c2,506$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.291,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Paul12c2,481$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.676,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Paul10c2,131$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.117,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Paul11c2,065$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.1531332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Paul9c1,828$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.171,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd0…0f74backed Paul5c1,727$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.32520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Paul9c1,600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1449643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Paul8c1,500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12534745.2%157 W · 190 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Paul14c1,422$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010043%43 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Paul11c1,400$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15444125.4%112 W · 329 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb294…0e2bbacked Paul12c1,250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0aa4…dbc5backed Paul15c1,167$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17012335%43 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Paul10c1,107$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.842,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Paul2c1,026$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.861,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Paul6c1,022$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Paul10c1,002$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1746649.8%232 W · 234 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Paul12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12025722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Paul11c999.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11028141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c5…3280backed Paul12c933.33$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Paul11c906.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013826.1%36 W · 102 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a7…a2f0backed Paul12c875$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Paul12c871.17$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.541936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c39…c8dabacked Paul6c832.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Paul15c755.55$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11714243%61 W · 81 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0494…a39fbacked Paul2c738.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Paul13c706.51$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.857533.3%25 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Paul11c666$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9625428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Paul10c651.29$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.21,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Paul10c600$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5289850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Paul14c565.39$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.581936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Paul12c550$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.522840.4%92 W · 136 L-0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Paul10c534.96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.51,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0121…f82cbacked Paul11c521.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.424030%12 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Paul16c504.55$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1531434.4%108 W · 206 L-25.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Paul14c462.83$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.252,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6827…26fdbacked Paul10c449.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.55234.6%18 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb2…6b94backed Paul12c403.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507041.4%29 W · 41 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Paul9c395.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7824846%114 W · 134 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Paul10c363.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0911122.5%25 W · 86 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-63.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Paul10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518241.8%76 W · 106 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d51…6c59backed Paul13c338.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441225%3 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe174…f74bbacked Paul10c330$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d1…40c3backed Paul10c325.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.613312.1%4 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-80.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Paul13c322.92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.311,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Paul11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe928…3b65backed Paul17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e66…01cbbacked Paul6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510827.8%30 W · 78 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Paul12c291.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356127.9%17 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfca7…96febacked Paul14c280$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Paul12c265$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.838048.4%184 W · 196 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Paul15c251.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Paul10c249.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9616340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Paul15c246.18$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2965647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f8f…8ed0backed Paul12c227.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.274736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4842…b2f4backed Paul12c220$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0925…462cbacked Paul12c206.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Paul6c199.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Paul15c198.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3036047.2%170 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Paul11c181$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9140744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Paul12c176$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1260661.2%371 W · 235 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Paul13c171$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0873745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x719d…8b6cbacked Paul12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204231%13 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Paul6c161.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.273,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Paul12c154.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.597,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Paul10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6155…01a5backed Paul8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-86.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf121…6903backed Paul14c145$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.881030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6271…4ac6backed Paul11c138$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.63262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Paul17c132$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.997046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Paul10c130.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.062634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Paul10c125.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.513935.9%14 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Paul12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1588446.8%414 W · 470 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Paul12c111$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.326435.9%23 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa55f…ce65backed Paul14c111$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc45…f8e3backed Paul12c108.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…5d79backed Paul17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34dc…3cdcbacked Paul10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe759…3648backed Paul12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215551.6%80 W · 75 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd87…decabacked Paul12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.