Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Paul
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac38844a51e30f52767eda3d2188696663c2d9f30849aa8f5b1c2e8a83beb771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Paul | 26c | 2,999$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.62 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Alcaraz | 74c | 2,163$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.84 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bab…cf38backed Alcaraz | 78c | 1,711$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1909…a2c9backed Paul | 35c | 1,155$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alcaraz | 67c | 1,145$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.55 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Paul | 25c | 961.29$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.32 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Paul | 22c | 905.93$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Paul | 43c | 860.06$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.8 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…e7f4backed Alcaraz | 74c | 805.23$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Paul | 7c | 692.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Alcaraz | 74c | 636.49$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa864…e47bbacked Alcaraz | 74c | 345.2$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Paul | 29c | 308.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…494bbacked Alcaraz | 56c | 181.87$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…4bbebacked Alcaraz | 68c | 172.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Alcaraz | 74c | 161.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 503 | 64.6%325 W · 178 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Paul | 22c | 160.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…f87ebacked Alcaraz | 78c | 160.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Alcaraz | 53c | 106$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alcaraz | 64c | 104.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Alcaraz | 66c | 103.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…e7d2backed Alcaraz | 50c | 99.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6387…9d9bbacked Alcaraz | 43c | 98.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Alcaraz | 48c | 94.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…84dbbacked Alcaraz | 68c | 75.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Alcaraz | 67c | 47.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…ce65backed Alcaraz | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Paul | 36c | 38.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Alcaraz | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Alcaraz | 69c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabaa…62a5backed Alcaraz | 78c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Paulthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy PaulAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)Alcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Paul (+2.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.