Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1c22eca794e1e3ee96788298461847b4adc7043d32978abb05c371facfa86aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Paul | 23c | 2,973$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.72 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 2,149$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.35 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Paul | 22c | 1,710$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.38 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…ef98backed Alcaraz | 77c | 626.6$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Alcaraz | 76c | 411.44$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…6cc8backed Alcaraz | 79c | 402.62$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Alcaraz | 79c | 259.69$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Paul | 24c | 249.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…1362backed Alcaraz | 77c | 197.56$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…4dbebacked Alcaraz | 79c | 127.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Alcaraz | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…c9a6backed Alcaraz | 78c | 78.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Alcaraz | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…8cccbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 46.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Alcaraz | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Alcaraz | 59c | 29.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Paul | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15e…8cacbacked Alcaraz | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 213 | 61.5%131 W · 82 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Alcaraz | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy PaulAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs PaulAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Paul (+2.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.