Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Paul (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19be265211af6382530d6db0bf68769b2a51ed2d9e10876be85c1e98c16159f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Paul | 48c | 2,878$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.45 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Alcaraz | 52c | 1,803$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.61 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Paul | 42c | 1,407$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.06 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Alcaraz | 52c | 962.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.27 | 1,277 | 56.6%723 W · 554 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Alcaraz | 45c | 839.94$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.27 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Alcaraz | 52c | 764$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Alcaraz | 65c | 450$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…ab0fbacked Alcaraz | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…9b8cbacked Paul | 30c | 331.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…6cc8backed Paul | 51c | 248.15$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…a2f0backed Paul | 53c | 199.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Alcaraz | 50c | 179.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Alcaraz | 71c | 140.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Paul | 53c | 129.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Paul | 31c | 110.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1,437 | 28.5%409 W · 1,028 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Alcaraz | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Paul | 38c | 98.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Paul | 26c | 84.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Paul | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…8b6cbacked Paul | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…dd4bbacked Alcaraz | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…bb68backed Paul | 34c | 53.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Paul | 55c | 45.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…03c4backed Paul | 52c | 40.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Paul | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 350 | 51.1%179 W · 171 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…1df6backed Alcaraz | 79c | 31.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…ce1cbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Paul | 49c | 28.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec4…58a9backed Alcaraz | 71c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Paul | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Paul | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Paul (+2.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy PaulAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs PaulAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.