TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2of FUT Esports, G2
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,148,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,304,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,148,482 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 657 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked FUT Esports45c322,081$146,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146,146.2142440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked G257c100,000$57,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,999.9839249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed FUT Esports44c100,000$44,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,999.967943%34 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed G256c79,876$44,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,445.2741649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe8…3549backed G258c52,831$30,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,375.1813954.7%76 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked G256c48,814$27,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,478.3111146.8%52 W · 59 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked G253c40,000$21,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,810.553154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FUT Esports46c30,758$14,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,039.423,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked G233c30,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,099.8413633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed G257c22,674$12,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,826.3211758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed G256c20,080$11,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,835.224846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed G244c19,685$8,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,007.9267041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed FUT Esports43c19,000$8,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,1703721.6%8 W · 29 L-9.6wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-58.2%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed G256c18,888$10,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,310.6681843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed G257c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,45033043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed G255c13,445$7,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,111.8410551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed G257c12,084$6,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,149.771,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed FUT Esports44c11,979$5,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,270.6516449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed FUT Esports48c11,042$5,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,263.9622448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed G257c10,503$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,502.8623839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed G256c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.9272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed G258c9,907$5,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,207.199337.6%35 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked G257c9,521$5,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,058.312038.3%46 W · 74 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked G250c9,138$4,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,603.791,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked G258c9,001$5,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,785.911,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed G256c9,000$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,96012653.2%67 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked FUT Esports30c8,421$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520.252,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfadd…3955backed G254c8,198$4,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,809.628052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed G255c7,500$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,37512441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed G250c7,200$3,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,572.3719455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked G262c6,922$4,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.093,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed G256c6,801$3,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.5521051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked FUT Esports43c6,500$2,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,79528538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b17…abcdbacked FUT Esports38c6,085$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.6250%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed G256c6,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6406152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FUT Esports33c5,595$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.752,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked FUT Esports44c5,006$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.122,20547.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L-4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed FUT Esports42c5,000$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.5396740.7%394 W · 573 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf6d…cf10backed FUT Esports46c4,947$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked FUT Esports45c4,865$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1681,15448.3%557 W · 597 L+4.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed G256c4,830$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.1515347.1%72 W · 81 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked FUT Esports42c4,803$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.639353.8%50 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked FUT Esports44c4,545$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008261%50 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed FUT Esports59c4,522$2,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,681.0219645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed FUT Esports68c4,519$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,072.6223852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked FUT Esports45c4,444$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00025751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked G237c4,194$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.8813646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed G249c3,943$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.791,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FUT Esports44c3,892$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.132,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked G256c3,792$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.6112449.2%61 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked FUT Esports42c3,422$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.7521042.9%90 W · 120 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked FUT Esports45c3,394$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.4927530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc70…7f2abacked G257c3,332$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.243432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8c2…55c3backed FUT Esports43c3,180$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.867642.1%32 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed G233c3,065$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.556432.8%21 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed G257c3,028$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.811346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed FUT Esports43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2905129.4%15 W · 36 L-8.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed FUT Esports44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32045848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FUT Esports44c2,944$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2951,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed G256c2,806$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.7946949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked FUT Esports43c2,777$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.1120539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked FUT Esports57c2,737$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.459839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed G269c2,732$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.331,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked FUT Esports55c2,716$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.3865250.5%329 W · 323 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf84e…6cbebacked G256c2,710$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.44650%23 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed FUT Esports41c2,561$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.4561737.9%234 W · 383 L-22.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x757d…1496backed FUT Esports44c2,320$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.9924549.8%122 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa871…1394backed FUT Esports43c2,298$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked G256c2,229$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.7412736.2%46 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked G256c2,206$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.3497952.4%513 W · 466 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42d…8fc7backed G257c2,190$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c6…1c37backed FUT Esports47c2,141$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011937.8%45 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed FUT Esports47c2,136$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed FUT Esports45c2,110$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.3655236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed G248c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.5896545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FUT Esports45c2,038$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.6575350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed G241c2,014$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.1410538.1%40 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee32…c685backed FUT Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed G259c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.9984658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed G255c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.221,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed G255c1,948$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.7346149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc723…e707backed FUT Esports44c1,910$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.41225%3 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-65.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked G256c1,898$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.17425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed FUT Esports42c1,800$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.979946.5%46 W · 53 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed FUT Esports42c1,794$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.9339239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed G257c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.395651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked G262c1,724$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.717,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked FUT Esports44c1,705$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75019834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked G256c1,655$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.1583652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked G254c1,582$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.3117148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed G232c1,569$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.144528.9%13 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked FUT Esports33c1,497$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9432548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7be…3aa3backed FUT Esports45c1,469$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.4380%0 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked FUT Esports45c1,464$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.161,03857.4%596 W · 442 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked G259c1,462$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.091,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa097…8795backed FUT Esports41c1,424$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.7717347.4%82 W · 91 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed FUT Esports44c1,364$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007149.3%35 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed FUT Esports44c1,340$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.822849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba4c…1362backed G277c1,309$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.061844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68b5…b56fbacked G243c1,307$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.14580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.