Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd12d7c0d9df5b19f723a18eebf3ee0f53497a82fa62a5ea1221b0852c24bc51f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 3,632$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.64 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Over | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 2,565$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.86 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Under | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 27c | 523.28$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.85 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 21c | 477.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 28c | 382.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 27c | 193.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 19c | 172.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Under | 80c | 139.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 24c | 114$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…2b9cbacked Under | 77c | 108.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 12c | 108.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 23c | 97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 27c | 92.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Over | 19c | 70.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Under | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…462cbacked Under | 78c | 43.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Under | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Lille OSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.