Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2845216459c6dac428070e13aff3404d2327b97e67cfcff81b81abda53e0bca3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 23,594$3,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,519.23 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Under | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +388.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 16c | 3,563$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.04 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 3,526$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.8 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 75c | 3,334$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 1c | 2,774$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1909…a2c9backed Over | 61c | 1,642$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 9c | 1,376$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…50e0backed Over | 73c | 1,352$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Over | 68c | 1,030$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 74c | 810.81$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.81 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 22c | 750.72$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.08 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 28c | 598$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 67c | 438.71$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 28c | 404.51$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.26 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 28c | 404.51$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.26 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 72c | 347.71$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Over | 74c | 220.38$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 71c | 187.24$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Over | 73c | 173$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Over | 79c | 161.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 65c | 154.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 72c | 151$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 73c | 139$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 25c | 117.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Under | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Under | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…ee5abacked Under | 28c | 42.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Under | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 80c | 41.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Under | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…6bf3backed Over | 78c | 32.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…953bbacked Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Over | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Lille OSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.