Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5657a3c00855f31f3f92e49d395ade59126b35d1f08bcb4db1de20b6d535452f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof Florida State Seminoles, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SMU Mustangs | 76c | 2,542$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.71 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Florida State Seminoles | 25c | 2,000$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.38 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Florida State Seminoles | 13c | 1,293$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.54 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked SMU Mustangs | 75c | 932.01$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.89 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Florida State Seminoles | 13c | 698.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Florida State Seminoles | 18c | 590.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Florida State Seminoles | 30c | 460.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.19 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SMU Mustangs | 80c | 439.29$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Florida State Seminoles | 29c | 433.62$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.91 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Florida State Seminoles | 25c | 409$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 382.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SMU Mustangs | 77c | 281.13$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Florida State Seminoles | 28c | 258$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked SMU Mustangs | 77c | 249.67$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…cb34backed Florida State Seminoles | 10c | 246.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed SMU Mustangs | 75c | 226.07$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Florida State Seminoles | 18c | 188.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed SMU Mustangs | 55c | 183.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed SMU Mustangs | 68c | 179$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…6903backed Florida State Seminoles | 15c | 130.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked SMU Mustangs | 80c | 101$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…f17dbacked Florida State Seminoles | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed SMU Mustangs | 76c | 97.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Florida State Seminoles | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 87.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Florida State Seminoles | 21c | 76.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked SMU Mustangs | 70c | 61.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed SMU Mustangs | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Florida State Seminoles | 32c | 55.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed SMU Mustangs | 80c | 49.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…462cbacked SMU Mustangs | 71c | 46.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked SMU Mustangs | 73c | 34.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked SMU Mustangs | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b15…bfa1backed SMU Mustangs | 70c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…ce65backed SMU Mustangs | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangsthis page
- Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 166.5Under won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-10.5)Florida State Seminoles won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-12.5)Florida State Seminoles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.