Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 162.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400dcc33f04361070be6098e74486a25bd41ed029d349c884511d24ea5a33f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd435…826ebacked Over | 49c | 55,054$26,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,076.69 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,650 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Under | 51c | 13,819$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Under | 51c | 11,127$5,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,674.9 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 51c | 11,068$5,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,624.8 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…c255backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Over | 49c | 5,966$2,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,042.56 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 50c | 3,251$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.74 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Under | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 2,329$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.2 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 2,328$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 2,063$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.47 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Under | 50c | 942$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Under | 50c | 750.86$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.43 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Under | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 50c | 620$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1c…9b07backed Under | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 50c | 238.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 51c | 225.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 51c | 209.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 51c | 198$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…f1c8backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…22c3backed Under | 51c | 127.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 51c | 119.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 51c | 97.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 51c | 96.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 50c | 90.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 71.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 51c | 69.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…9bbabacked Under | 50c | 48.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…e949backed Under | 51c | 31.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…8ac4backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 162.5this page
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 161.5Over won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-24.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-25.5)Michigan Wolverines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.