Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 161.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd506bef4bd505772241792e5f2cab0314517312c606208a456dbff2d133c09bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd435…826ebacked Over | 51c | 46,425$23,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,748.45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Under | 49c | 11,094$5,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,436.22 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 49c | 9,080$4,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,449.2 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Under | 49c | 8,265$4,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,017.18 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.99 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…c255backed Under | 48c | 2,715$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Over | 51c | 2,134$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.61 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 49c | 992$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.08 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Under | 48c | 600.01$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.23 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 580.69$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.95 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 49c | 225.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 48c | 209.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 48c | 208.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 49c | 100.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 48c | 93.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 53c | 74.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 48c | 71.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Under | 49c | 37.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 161.5this page
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 162.5Over won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-24.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-25.5)Michigan Wolverines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.