Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-24.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f6c3dc65b7a9a91ba19365e56c0f5dfbbf6356f804318576298a28175b7bc1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 6c | 9,978$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,379.04 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 6,046$2,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,981.14 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 2,028$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.15 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 1,761$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.05 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 44c | 906.29$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.77 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 845.42$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.98 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 369.02$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.75 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 306$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 315 | 37.8%119 W · 196 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 109$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 88.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 77.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 62.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 51.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 48.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…2b01backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 35.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-24.5)this page
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 161.5Over won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 162.5Over won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-25.5)Michigan Wolverines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.