Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-25.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f92dd7d301956de934d75bd5ab6761593a1c775145edc807db0d4d76a55360c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 4,600$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 48c | 2,280$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.4 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 48c | 1,975$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…8d2dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 186.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 48c | 67.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 30.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-25.5)this page
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 161.5Over won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 162.5Over won
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-24.5)Michigan Wolverines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.