TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Suns: O/U 206.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$153,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over50c60,947$30,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,210.3643542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under50c45,000$22,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,3501,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Over50c31,686$15,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,925.6829650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c19,736$9,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,828.539,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Under50c8,954$4,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,456.8737842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under51c6,762$3,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,293.454,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.4533447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Over53c4,738$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5114456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c3,190$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.662,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.980737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over50c2,590$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.184,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under51c1,406$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.913,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under50c1,402$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.83,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under50c1,300$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52057950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8590…07adbacked Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005945.8%27 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Over52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52022648.2%109 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c676.82$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.812,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa0…b8a3backed Under50c563.79$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+40.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over4c478.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6540849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b9e…cb21backed Over52c467.54$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.12425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under49c432.65$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.6538946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.161,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under49c397.15$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.551,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c1c…9b07backed Under49c380$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.84156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under50c331.35$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5864844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over47c300.31$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.958,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under48c228.95$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.054,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10072250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10453951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047048.5%228 W · 242 L-18.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under45c172.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8553149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed Over52c154.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5936643.2%158 W · 208 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over55c152.94$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.983,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under49c146.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.971,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under48c140$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.838242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd121…b0a5backed Over52c133.42$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695731.6%18 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6539552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked Over49c110.2$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5421352.1%111 W · 102 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under46c100.31$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.925,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4865649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under50c99.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5578648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over45c99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.551,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c82.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.764,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9561…ae8abacked Over50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403231.3%10 W · 22 L-6.1wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Under48c62.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3312547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad2…7219backed Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce5d…5081backed Under49c41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.914050%20 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over53c37.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8318150.3%91 W · 90 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Under50c35.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1119435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Over54c35.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.247855.1%43 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under74c27.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1467921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over49c24.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.071,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Over52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.421553.5%115 W · 100 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…0c83backed Over52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.419346.1%89 W · 104 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f53…d57bbacked Over54c18.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.