TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Suns: O/U 211.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,570 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over42c2,018$847 inLost-$846.7243542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c1,660$889 inWon+$771.868,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c1,493$717 inLost-$716.684,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Under62c694.27$430 inWon+$264.279149.5%45 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under58c423.62$246 inWon+$177.923,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under61c391.28$239 inWon+$152.323,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under58c299.57$174 inWon+$125.822,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under58c169.65$98 inWon+$71.252,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed Under64c155.22$100 inWon+$55.222927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over22c128.04$28 inLost-$28.1340849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over42c119$50 inLost-$49.690357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under46c33.04$15 inWon+$17.845,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under61c32.79$20 inWon+$12.7937959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under72c29.35$21 inWon+$8.351,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over54c26$14 inLost-$14.0451354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over39c25.81$10 inLost-$10.094,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under64c20.48$13 inWon+$7.371,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under61c20$12 inWon+$7.862049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.