TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Suns: O/U 203.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,339

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,364 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4435…0840backed Over51c3,886$2,000 inLost-$2,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c2,119$1,017 inLost-$1,016.984,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under52c2,103$1,092 inWon+$1,010.211,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under47c2,100$987 inWon+$1,1131,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c1,497$726 inWon+$771.149,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under49c300$147 inWon+$15391148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under72c113.36$82 inWon+$31.78,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over62c80.49$50 inLost-$504965.3%32 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under50c80$40 inWon+$4037665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under40c78.28$31 inWon+$46.9750841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1877…78d7backed Under52c65.38$34 inWon+$31.385242.3%22 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under38c63.7$24 inWon+$39.324,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over30c62.48$18 inLost-$18.4840849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over50c60$30 inLost-$3034849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Over60c58.21$35 inLost-$3528856.9%164 W · 124 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under37c44.58$16 inWon+$28.285,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under70c36.22$25 inWon+$10.8767921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Under52c35.15$18 inWon+$16.8734248.8%167 W · 175 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaea…4bbfbacked Over60c33.33$20 inLost-$2040541%166 W · 239 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3c9…2669backed Over49c31.7$15 inLost-$15.426847.1%32 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over46c27.44$13 inLost-$12.623,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Over42c27.27$12 inLost-$11.5619435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd058…0613backed Over50c20$10 inLost-$101154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over56c18.82$11 inLost-$10.543,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.