TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Suns: O/U 204.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,831 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xccfc…e810backed Over50c6,755$3,378 inLost-$3,377.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c5,962$2,863 inWon+$3,098.959,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Over57c2,215$1,262 inLost-$1,262.58148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under47c1,030$484 inWon+$545.91,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Under45c1,030$464 inWon+$566.522143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over57c448$255 inLost-$255.366,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under42c381.36$159 inWon+$222.462,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under43c367.25$158 inWon+$209.333,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf1…8277backed Over59c341.34$200 inLost-$20017236%62 W · 110 L-19.3wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under45c268$121 inWon+$147.445646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under47c257.5$121 inWon+$136.4871547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Under50c223.2$111 inWon+$111.72842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under41c209.28$86 inWon+$123.474,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under45c134$60 inWon+$73.756547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under44c100$44 inWon+$5622453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under54c73.47$40 inWon+$33.81,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over46c68.45$31 inLost-$31.491,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd1c…4eaabacked Under45c48.56$22 inWon+$26.711735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3c9…2669backed Over42c46.78$20 inLost-$19.796847.1%32 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under56c38.3$21 inWon+$17.0139047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under52c36.55$19 inWon+$17.498,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8492…c05ebacked Over58c34.72$20 inLost-$203066.7%20 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under44c23$10 inWon+$12.8862049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd058…0613backed Over50c20$10 inLost-$101154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under50c20$10 inWon+$1037665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.