NBA · resolved market

Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24c51074ed79a27e264650418f20816cb75819bb14b290897f22a64efe71f4fe

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Heat
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $130,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $133,469

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,847 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf668…5c69backed Trail Blazers	54c	46,296$24,785 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,510.87	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat	47c	21,574$10,093 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,093.18	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Trail Blazers	54c	20,812$11,159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,653.09	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Trail Blazers	53c	19,256$10,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,125.67	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	47c	7,342$3,480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,480.08	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	44c	6,484$2,877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,877.3	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Trail Blazers	53c	5,849$3,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,749.06	416	49.8%207 W · 209 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Trail Blazers	53c	5,660$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,660.38	387	50.4%195 W · 192 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat	49c	3,986$1,953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,953.14	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Heat	46c	3,274$1,506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,506.04	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Heat	46c	2,319$1,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,068.17	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Heat	45c	2,211$1,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.76	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers	51c	2,203$1,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,072.81	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Heat	46c	2,174$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	171	51.5%88 W · 83 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat	51c	2,051$1,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050.6	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Heat	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	133	55.6%74 W · 59 L	+8.7wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Heat	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Trail Blazers	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed Trail Blazers	55c	1,991$1,095 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$895.91	30	60%18 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Heat	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	111	37.8%42 W · 69 L	-14.2wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-28%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Trail Blazers	51c	886.21$451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.11	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Heat	50c	792.66$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.33	66	50%33 W · 33 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Heat	46c	649.06$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.57	247	44.1%109 W · 138 L	-10.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Heat	51c	647.06$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	143	46.2%66 W · 77 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Heat	50c	584$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292	346	54%187 W · 159 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Trail Blazers	55c	570.67$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.29	153	48.4%74 W · 79 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Heat	47c	500$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Trail Blazers	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed Heat	49c	499.99$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	456	57%260 W · 196 L	+44.6wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Heat	46c	434.78$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	155	43.2%67 W · 88 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Trail Blazers	51c	393.33$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.33	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat	48c	387$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.76	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Heat	47c	353$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.91	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Heat	46c	350$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161	323	46.4%150 W · 173 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Trail Blazers	56c	317$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.48	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat	45c	300$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Trail Blazers	51c	250.02$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.51	146	47.9%70 W · 76 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81e0…df45backed Heat	44c	217.31$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.12	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Heat	49c	191.35$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.76	389	47.6%185 W · 204 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Heat	44c	150$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a26…1b7dbacked Trail Blazers	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Heat	51c	145.45$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.72	259	51.4%133 W · 126 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Heat	43c	136$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.11	114	43%49 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat	43c	128.37$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Heat	47c	124.54$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.94	118	49.2%58 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Heat	46c	108$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.68	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Trail Blazers	52c	102.42$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.17	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e5…b098backed Trail Blazers	50c	101.01$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.51	54	57.4%31 W · 23 L	+5.8wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Heat	47c	100.65$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.48	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f7…2633backed Trail Blazers	51c	100.16$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.25	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f31…e308backed Heat	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Heat	44c	93.38$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.78	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Trail Blazers	58c	86.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	180	31.7%57 W · 123 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Heat	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	193	50.3%97 W · 96 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers	56c	75.91$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.52	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed9…3cdebacked Trail Blazers	52c	67.31$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Trail Blazers	53c	62.26$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.26	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Heat	46c	60.78$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfd…46f8backed Trail Blazers	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	131	42.7%56 W · 75 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Heat	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Heat	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Trail Blazers	54c	47.8$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.99	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers	51c	44.35$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.68	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb2…4954backed Heat	51c	42.22$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Heat	49c	41.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.36	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Heat	52c	39.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e91…3e2abacked Heat	50c	39.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-6.9wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Trail Blazers	52c	39.69$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.07	263	36.5%96 W · 167 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Heat	44c	38.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bee…aa9ebacked Heat	49c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Trail Blazers	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	226	46.9%106 W · 120 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x049b…ebb2backed Trail Blazers	51c	34.31$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.81	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Trail Blazers	53c	33.99$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.06	197	48.2%95 W · 102 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Heat	49c	31.87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Trail Blazers	48c	29.96$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.58	172	50.6%87 W · 85 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Heat	50c	29.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	806	53.6%432 W · 374 L	+16.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Trail Blazers	56c	26.47$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.65	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Trail Blazers	49c	25.61$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.06	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-3.9wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Trail Blazers	51c	24.7$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.1	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Trail Blazers	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d9d…3950backed Heat	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+32.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)this page
Heat vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Under won
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Under won
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Under won
Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event