NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bfee01d740409e366629823fd9a9a185ad6dbf0e828c33dd67dc0020e9efe0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Under | 52c | 6,767$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,248.16 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 5,719$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 55c | 5,197$2,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.13 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.98 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 6c | 2,083$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 1,976$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.2 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 1,641$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.68 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 45c | 1,621$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 45c | 1,375$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.91 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 78c | 1,107$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.4 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 1,018$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 21c | 951.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 817.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 45c | 698.71$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.42 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 468.75$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over | 5c | 365.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 9c | 349.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.49 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 303.57$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Under | 52c | 259.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 45c | 252.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Over | 26c | 249.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…1f0cbacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb9…afbbbacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d50…436fbacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 8c | 181$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.52 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 47c | 139.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 73c | 94.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 54c | 90.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Over | 44c | 58.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fe…5ee4backed Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5this page
- Heat vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.