NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb977697b9a3e5e0d86077df87160fba5aba733fbb1d12d842cdb1c57994bd4af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 58c | 8,126$4,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,436.36 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…77d8backed Under | 58c | 6,143$3,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.06 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 42c | 4,657$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.92 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 4,115$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 43c | 2,428$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 53c | 1,883$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 7c | 1,766$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 51c | 1,245$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.19 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 52c | 880.09$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.15 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 45c | 555$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 42c | 524.6$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.95 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 471.39$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.71 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 458.4$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 57c | 437$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.91 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 47c | 292.59$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…996dbacked Under | 59c | 292.47$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 45c | 195.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 44c | 76.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 42c | 74.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Over | 49c | 40.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -10.0wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…5aa5backed Under | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Under | 55c | 27.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5this page
- Heat vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.