TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,930,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,936,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,930,821 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Suns53c1,505,333$794,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794,0005952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Thunder47c500,000$235,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265,0004452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Thunder47c375,852$175,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200,645.9226753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Thunder47c150,000$70,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,5006352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Thunder49c150,000$73,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,499.9815443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Thunder48c97,910$46,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,913.1559653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns53c56,113$29,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,739.7187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder47c55,655$26,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,607.279,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Suns52c52,504$27,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,221.717354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Thunder49c51,548$25,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,444.51,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Thunder47c48,296$22,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,597.12,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…51f0backed Suns56c42,610$24,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,00070%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder47c40,000$18,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,20066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Suns52c36,428$18,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,942.7337557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder49c35,000$17,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,966.671,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder48c27,307$13,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,202.531,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder47c21,141$10,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,114.345,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Thunder48c17,944$8,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,404.7220542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Thunder48c16,885$8,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,706.5240350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Thunder49c10,204$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,204.081650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Thunder47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,30017658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Suns56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.976352.4%33 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder47c9,961$4,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,292.253,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70d…ef69backed Suns54c9,742$5,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,260.671050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a81…aa82backed Thunder46c9,742$4,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,260.671866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder47c9,451$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,023.666,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Suns10c9,249$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.751,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Thunder48c7,500$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9001,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder47c7,500$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,975.111,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Thunder49c7,145$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,665.941,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder48c7,009$3,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.744,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Thunder48c6,191$2,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,219.2611750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Thunder47c6,100$2,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20444654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Suns50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder47c5,761$2,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,043.791,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Thunder46c5,627$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.9218448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Suns52c4,786$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Thunder45c4,207$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.148347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf32…e0e7backed Suns55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2002864.3%18 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x71ea…a8eebacked Thunder45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2002356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Thunder48c3,938$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.1292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder48c3,499$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.3514052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Thunder44c3,235$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.3618151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Thunder47c3,191$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.485145.1%23 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Suns52c3,143$1,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.2636741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Thunder48c3,087$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.0917348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Thunder48c3,006$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.9636351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Suns54c2,776$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.8241954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder46c2,365$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.42,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc49…ffd6backed Thunder47c2,364$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.833250%16 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Thunder47c2,294$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.7311834.7%41 W · 77 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Suns55c2,078$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.8322053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3484…0e64backed Thunder47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0603100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Suns52c1,843$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.8835651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Suns54c1,407$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76016136%58 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Suns26c1,320$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.0922836.4%83 W · 145 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Thunder47c1,305$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.642,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Suns10c1,300$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13128929.4%85 W · 204 L-13.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Thunder49c1,228$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.57650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder45c1,138$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.92,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder46c1,135$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.112,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Thunder48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6728448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder45c1,031$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.561,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Suns55c1,031$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.9751753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Thunder47c1,011$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.922,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Suns56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Suns8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Thunder49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51015653.8%84 W · 72 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Suns51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Thunder48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5209649%47 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Thunder45c999.95$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.9749142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c58…8c00backed Thunder49c912.99$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.46933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Thunder47c851.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.0623546.8%110 W · 125 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Thunder48c800$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4168750.6%44 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Thunder46c782.61$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.6116837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Thunder44c760.97$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.921,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Thunder48c729.17$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.1719951.8%103 W · 96 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d1…c018backed Thunder47c718.62$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.872763%17 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder48c697.1$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.493,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Suns52c690$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.6144648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Thunder47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.323058.7%135 W · 95 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder48c626$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.2469852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x397d…794fbacked Suns52c539.69$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-56.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4d5…79f9backed Suns41c500.61$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.485046%23 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Thunder44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28084150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Thunder47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26540947.7%195 W · 214 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Suns50c472.73$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3724051.3%123 W · 117 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked Suns53c415.09$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22017458%101 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Thunder48c406.25$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.2521355.9%119 W · 94 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Thunder45c399.64$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.825642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5d…4c40backed Suns52c383.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Thunder44c369.22$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6952643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Suns54c351.71$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9291050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder47c347$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.912,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e79…089bbacked Thunder49c325$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.751450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Thunder48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.523648.7%115 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Thunder47c310$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.39647.9%46 W · 50 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac8…bca4backed Thunder49c301.1$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed Suns50c299.21$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.43956.4%22 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder48c289.05$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.493,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.