NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817ffa786898248f07e9c7105e9ddf55a38cab3dbdd333ce89fe19e121bd1da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 6,814$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,291.74 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 52c | 4,398$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.36 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 47c | 1,461$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.34 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 53c | 1,441$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.67 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Under | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 51c | 980.41$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.4 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Over | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 50c | 737.22$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.61 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8702…6304backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 230 | 43%99 W · 131 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872b…c3c0backed Over | 50c | 398$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 50c | 271.76$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1452…a66ebacked Over | 68c | 240$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 10c | 207.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 205.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 50c | 203.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb632…7ec5backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 49c | 162.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 106.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…a6b5backed Over | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Over | 52c | 93.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Over | 64c | 41.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…0b8dbacked Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…1148backed Over | 65c | 39.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 29.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Devin Booker: Assists Over 6.5No won
- Devin Booker: Points Over 22.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Suns vs. ThunderThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.