NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0477a5b8f8c9f36a652860ab2ee7e5aeb634c0dd7a0ef60be878a08e91a76992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98da…a9ebbacked Suns | 52c | 1,513$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.89 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 47c | 550.85$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.95 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 48c | 414.67$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.63 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Thunder | 54c | 303.8$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.75 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder | 48c | 292$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Suns | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785e…5542backed Thunder | 50c | 214$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…af2cbacked Thunder | 50c | 212$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…d42cbacked Thunder | 50c | 212$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Suns | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c00…724fbacked Thunder | 50c | 208$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…eca3backed Suns | 50c | 208$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…f571backed Thunder | 50c | 204$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e6…c872backed Suns | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…3b99backed Suns | 50c | 197$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…7e2abacked Thunder | 50c | 196$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…cb0ebacked Suns | 50c | 196$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eff…903dbacked Thunder | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…ba5bbacked Suns | 50c | 192$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747d…3127backed Thunder | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacaf…2802backed Suns | 50c | 187$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…66d8backed Thunder | 50c | 186$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Thunder | 55c | 182.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…b3d2backed Thunder | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc09…a8b0backed Thunder | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee34…1382backed Suns | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…f016backed Suns | 50c | 179$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb1…6b78backed Suns | 50c | 177$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…8fdcbacked Suns | 50c | 174$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe212…5243backed Suns | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Suns | 50c | 122$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Suns | 49c | 113$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Thunder | 51c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…ea19backed Thunder | 53c | 95.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Suns | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Suns | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Suns | 48c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Thunder | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Suns | 48c | 67.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Thunder | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Thunder | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Suns | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Thunder | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Suns | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Thunder | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Thunder | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Thunder | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Suns | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Thunder | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Thunder | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Suns | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Thunder | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Thunder | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Thunder | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Thunder | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Thunder | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Thunder | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Thunder | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Suns | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Suns | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Thunder | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Thunder | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Thunder | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Thunder | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Thunder | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Thunder | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Thunder | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Suns | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Thunder | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Thunder | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Thunder | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Devin Booker: Assists Over 6.5No won
- Devin Booker: Points Over 22.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Suns vs. ThunderThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.