TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Suns, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,468 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2286…3ccfbacked Suns17c6,872$1,168 inLost-$1,168.24854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns16c642.94$102 inLost-$102.335,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Suns19c529.52$103 inLost-$10315038%57 W · 93 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e88…f3c9backed Suns20c375.24$75 inLost-$755044%22 W · 28 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+40.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Thunder80c335$268 inWon+$678759.8%52 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder80c315$252 inWon+$633,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Suns18c300$54 inLost-$5440346.2%186 W · 217 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Suns19c249.96$47 inLost-$47.491,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Thunder80c200$160 inWon+$409050%45 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Suns21c121.43$25 inLost-$2513946.8%65 W · 74 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05b9…af0abacked Suns20c106.76$22 inLost-$21.822240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6966…409bbacked Suns20c106$21 inLost-$21.23246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e79…089bbacked Suns20c104.77$21 inLost-$20.831450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Suns21c95.24$20 inLost-$209941.4%41 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a7…261bbacked Suns20c89$18 inLost-$17.84242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddf6…9bd5backed Suns20c84$17 inLost-$16.82544%11 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc789…3907backed Suns20c79$16 inLost-$15.83342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe105…8a2dbacked Suns20c75$15 inLost-$153961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc07…e9f2backed Suns20c74$15 inLost-$14.83154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbba…e95bbacked Suns20c72$14 inLost-$14.43641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83b1…cac1backed Suns20c72$14 inLost-$14.42441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b1…042fbacked Suns20c68$14 inLost-$13.63650%18 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b73…a19dbacked Suns20c61$12 inLost-$12.22867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+32.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Thunder80c45$36 inWon+$99560%57 W · 38 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Thunder80c15$12 inWon+$37353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.