TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,802 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x827a…8a2bbacked Suns53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.9922053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Thunder47c1,855$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.0329351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Suns54c360$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.48355.4%46 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Suns51c209.08$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6351350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Thunder49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0827161.3%166 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb811…f65ebacked Thunder44c199$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.44450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ec…4bd8backed Suns56c193$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf548…1702backed Thunder45c192$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+49.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf47e…3862backed Thunder44c192$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd8…2113backed Thunder45c190$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb58…ee73backed Thunder45c190$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Suns53c189$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1710143.6%44 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48da…1307backed Thunder45c187$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983a…0955backed Suns55c186$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b8…471bbacked Suns55c184$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3566…ca68backed Thunder45c183$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1160…0b5cbacked Thunder44c183$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d9…88e7backed Suns56c183$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02b5…ff5ebacked Suns55c182$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb39…65edbacked Thunder45c181$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5696…b4cdbacked Thunder44c179$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb2…da44backed Thunder44c179$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dbe…9068backed Suns56c178$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe956…988fbacked Suns55c177$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23a6…52b0backed Thunder45c176$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcf…8322backed Thunder45c175$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0299…c66cbacked Thunder45c174$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ec…6a6cbacked Thunder45c172$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xef40…bd4bbacked Thunder45c170$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+95.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2181…8fefbacked Suns55c170$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf407…221ebacked Suns56c170$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ac…8f0cbacked Suns55c168$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab4…468cbacked Suns55c167$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb219…1e52backed Suns56c167$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b6…d1e0backed Suns55c165$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x532c…fba8backed Suns55c165$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc06c…97febacked Suns55c163$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83f4…a551backed Suns55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Suns54c143$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.228052.5%42 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d30…2645backed Suns54c104$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.167448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce24…6239backed Thunder46c99.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Suns54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Suns54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011155%61 W · 50 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Thunder46c80.19$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.385147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d96…a9d9backed Thunder47c74.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.472326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Suns54c72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.888450%42 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…5192backed Thunder46c68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.723545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbba…e95bbacked Thunder46c67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.183641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83d7…f2d1backed Thunder46c66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.642857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2c…38ccbacked Thunder46c66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.643237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6132…7665backed Suns54c64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.563658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Thunder46c63$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.023964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+24.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Thunder47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.84242.9%18 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f96…92e0backed Thunder47c59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.522642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9430…97cebacked Thunder47c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.153647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb34…93a5backed Thunder47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.191060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Suns53c52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.567451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5d…be79backed Thunder46c49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.464459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73c5…4997backed Thunder46c46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.842937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x37e8…441fbacked Thunder47c46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.582157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Suns53c44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.326839.7%27 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90cb…ae5fbacked Thunder47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.551233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd647…9c8fbacked Thunder47c41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.732835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Suns53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.26058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bd1…0100backed Thunder46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.63351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d67…cf38backed Suns53c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.143855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb7…8745backed Thunder46c38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.522556%14 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…d6cbbacked Thunder46c34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.362458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…dce6backed Suns54c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.123056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb570…25dbbacked Thunder47c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Suns52c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.568151.9%42 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Suns54c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.588852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ba…2117backed Thunder47c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.782857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1c…0dd0backed Suns54c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.045060%30 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Suns53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51e5…9fcabacked Thunder46c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87c8…2cb0backed Thunder47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.253354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked Thunder48c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.443253.1%17 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f4…758dbacked Suns53c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.663348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ab…b38dbacked Thunder46c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.882770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Suns54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87651.3%39 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Suns53c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.079048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.