NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80d4acd84d9407203904d8c7b311d8dde755daf9bf148d311d28e6e2fee6f4f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Timberwolves, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Pelicans | 45c | 7,588$3,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,206.3 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 56c | 4,565$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.63 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 56c | 2,399$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.92 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 44c | 2,141$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.8 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 2,004$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Pelicans | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 40c | 747.69$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 60c | 598.5$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 562$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.1 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 427.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Timberwolves | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Pelicans | 45c | 340$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Pelicans | 45c | 329.23$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.08 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Pelicans | 39c | 309.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.25 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 54c | 268$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 245.1$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Timberwolves | 23c | 193.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Timberwolves | 54c | 185.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Timberwolves | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 41c | 171.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Timberwolves | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Timberwolves | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 271 | 52%141 W · 130 L | -17.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 45c | 161.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…7f0abacked Timberwolves | 65c | 153.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 63.3%76 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Timberwolves | 58c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 46c | 110.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Timberwolves | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pelicans | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Timberwolves | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Timberwolves | 66c | 75.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Pelicans | 51c | 69.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Pelicans | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Timberwolves | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…aa6fbacked Pelicans | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Timberwolves | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Pelicans | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…feafbacked Pelicans | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…4edbbacked Pelicans | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Pelicans | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c07…7ae9backed Timberwolves | 53c | 40.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Pelicans | 35c | 38.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Timberwolves | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…7fc8backed Timberwolves | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…72f4backed Timberwolves | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…0b5dbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. PelicansTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.