NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2581dd8001d1481ec62b7f0e0b649f265ba7ac3598f71708c99f5bbc242b225c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Timberwolves, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Timberwolves | 62c | 4,805$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Pelicans | 48c | 3,300$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.97 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…cc5bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 3,258$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pelicans | 48c | 2,985$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.67 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 52c | 2,292$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Timberwolves | 52c | 2,170$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.63 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 51c | 1,986$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.34 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Pelicans | 41c | 1,670$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.8 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 52c | 1,124$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Timberwolves | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Pelicans | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.26 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Pelicans | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 877.05$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3b…5af6backed Pelicans | 41c | 818$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Pelicans | 50c | 710.69$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.35 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 45c | 587.74$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.24 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 50c | 581.96$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.98 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Timberwolves | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Pelicans | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Timberwolves | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Timberwolves | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Timberwolves | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 49c | 402$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Pelicans | 52c | 342$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Timberwolves | 61c | 279.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 47c | 230.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.9 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Timberwolves | 48c | 224.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Pelicans | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 53c | 103$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Pelicans | 61c | 102.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Pelicans | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Pelicans | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Timberwolves | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pelicans | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pelicans | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Timberwolves | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Pelicans | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Pelicans | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Pelicans | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…3017backed Timberwolves | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…5b2dbacked Pelicans | 53c | 78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Timberwolves | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Timberwolves | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Timberwolves | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Timberwolves | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pelicans | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Pelicans | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Pelicans | 39c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Pelicans | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…0256backed Pelicans | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Pelicans | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…5c69backed Pelicans | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…4df9backed Timberwolves | 54c | 33.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Timberwolves | 51c | 28.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Timberwolves | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f96…1fb1backed Timberwolves | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. PelicansTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.