NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5915ce752d4657fa659b968004c86874556e6cd6d524261a034651c70833d9d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Timberwolves, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Timberwolves | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 50c | 4,014$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 2,990$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.15 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 48c | 2,261$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.54 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 1,875$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Pelicans | 50c | 706.97$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.49 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Timberwolves | 49c | 432.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.16 | 577 | 60.5%349 W · 228 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Timberwolves | 49c | 324.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.24 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Pelicans | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Pelicans | 52c | 284.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 51c | 281$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Pelicans | 49c | 236.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Pelicans | 53c | 232.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Pelicans | 51c | 211.76$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Timberwolves | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Pelicans | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Pelicans | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Pelicans | 51c | 130.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Pelicans | 51c | 99.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…ff81backed Pelicans | 51c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Timberwolves | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 50c | 52.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 46c | 34.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Timberwolves | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Timberwolves | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Pelicans | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Pelicans | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. PelicansTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.